2026 season · Week 11

Texas Tech Red Raiders Playoff Chances

Updated November 11, 2026 · Based on 6,000 simulated seasons

Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) has a 28% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 14% chance to win the Big 12 and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). It earns a first-round bye in 5% of simulations. Projected regular-season wins: 9.5. Biggest game left: at Oklahoma St (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Texas Tech at 55%, a loss at 8%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 11-1: 93% · 10-2: 34% · 9-3: 1%.

Texas Tech Red Raiders odds (November 11, 2026)
Make the College Football Playoff28%
Win the Big 1214%
Reach the conference championship33%
First-round bye5%
Reach the semifinals5%
Win the national title<1%

Texas Tech playoff odds at a glance

Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) has a 28% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 14% chance to win the Big 12 and less than a 1% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). It earns a first-round bye in 5% of simulations. Projected regular-season wins: 9.5. Biggest game left: at Oklahoma St (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11) — a win puts Texas Tech at 55%, a loss at 8%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 11-1: 93% · 10-2: 34% · 9-3: 1%.

More Big 12: Big 12 championship odds · Arizona · Arizona St · BYU · Baylor · Cincinnati · Colorado · Houston · Iowa State · Kansas · Kansas St · Oklahoma St · TCU · UCF · Utah · West Virginia · All teams

About the A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor: every FBS team's path to the 2026 College Football Playoff. It gives all 138 FBS teams their odds to make the 12-team playoff, win their conference, earn a first-round bye and win the national title, from 6,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with each conference's official tiebreakers and the 2026 CFP format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs and who to root for, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Last updated November 11, 2026 · results through Wed, Nov 11 · based on 6,000 simulated seasons.

How to use the College Football Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We play out the rest of the season 6,000 times and count how often each team makes the 12-team playoff, wins its conference, reaches its title game, earns a first-round bye and wins the national title.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make them the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update nationwide.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim this week" or "Sim to Selection Day" to fill in the games you haven't picked. Your picks stay locked.
  4. Pick the title games. "Title games" (after the last week) shows each conference's likely championship matchups. Pick a winner — the pick follows that team if it gets there.
  5. The committee counts. Our odds factor in the CFP committee's latest Top 25 and where we project it goes next. The CFP Top 25 shows the committee's 12 in gold.
  6. Make the bracket yours. Your picks shape the projected bracket — tap See the Bracket on any page. Tap any team to send it through, or edit the 12 to swap in any team. It follows the 2026 rules, so every Power 4 champion and the top Group of 6 team stay in. Switch to 24 teams to see the field under the 2027 rules.
  7. Go deeper. Conference pages apply each league's official tiebreakers. Team pages show what your team needs and who to root for.
  8. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the projected 12-team field or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are Texas Tech's chances to make the College Football Playoff?

A 28% chance, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated November 11, 2026). The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12). Chance of a first-round bye: 5%. Chance to win the national title: less than 1%.

What does Texas Tech need to make the playoff?

If Texas Tech finishes the regular season 11-1, it makes the playoff in 93% of simulated seasons; at 10-2, 34%; at 9-3, 1%. The biggest game left is at Oklahoma St (Sat, Nov 14, Week 11): a win puts Texas Tech at 55%, a loss at 8%. Winning the Big 12 is an automatic bid: Texas Tech wins it in 14% of simulations.

Who should Texas Tech fans root for?

The results elsewhere that help Texas Tech most: Arizona St over Oklahoma St (Week 12, +4 points); Kansas over Oklahoma St (Week 13, +4 points); Kansas over BYU (Week 12, +2 points). Each number is how much that result alone raises Texas Tech's playoff odds.

Can Texas Tech win the Big 12?

Texas Tech reaches the Big 12 Championship in 33% of simulated seasons and wins the conference in 14%. Ties for a title-game spot are broken with the Big 12's official tiebreakers.

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Playoff odds, projected rankings, fields and brackets are estimates from A to Z Sports computer simulations, not predictions of fact and not official rankings, and are provided for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are not betting advice. Statistical information is believed accurate but is provided without warranty. Game data from CollegeFootballData.com.

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