2026 season · Week 8

Texas Tech Red Raiders Playoff Chances

Updated October 18, 2026 · Based on 6,000 simulated seasons

Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) has a 53% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 25% chance to win the Big 12 and a 3% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026). It earns a first-round bye in 21% of simulations. Projected regular-season wins: 10.4. Biggest game left: vs. Arizona (Sat, Oct 31, Week 9) — a win puts Texas Tech at 67%, a loss at 17%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 12-0: >99% · 11-1: 81% · 10-2: 17%.

Texas Tech Red Raiders odds (October 18, 2026)
Make the College Football Playoff53%
Win the Big 1225%
Reach the conference championship52%
First-round bye21%
Reach the semifinals15%
Win the national title3%

Texas Tech playoff odds at a glance

Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) has a 53% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 25% chance to win the Big 12 and a 3% chance to win the national title, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026). It earns a first-round bye in 21% of simulations. Projected regular-season wins: 10.4. Biggest game left: vs. Arizona (Sat, Oct 31, Week 9) — a win puts Texas Tech at 67%, a loss at 17%. Playoff odds by final regular-season record — 12-0: >99% · 11-1: 81% · 10-2: 17%.

More Big 12: Big 12 championship odds · Arizona · Arizona St · BYU · Baylor · Cincinnati · Colorado · Houston · Iowa State · Kansas · Kansas St · Oklahoma St · TCU · UCF · Utah · West Virginia · All teams

About the A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor

The A to Z Sports CFB Playoff Predictor: every FBS team's path to the 2026 College Football Playoff. It gives all 138 FBS teams their odds to make the 12-team playoff, win their conference, earn a first-round bye and win the national title, from 6,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Pick the winner of any game and every team's odds update, with each conference's official tiebreakers and the 2026 CFP format applied. Every team has a page with what it needs and who to root for, and you can build, download and share your own bracket. Free to use. No account needed.

Last updated October 18, 2026 · results through Week 7 · based on 6,000 simulated seasons.

How to use the College Football Playoff Predictor

  1. See every team's odds. We simulate the rest of the season thousands of times and count how often each team makes the 12-team playoff.
  2. Pick any game. Tap a team to make them the winner. Both teams' strength updates the way it would after a real result, and every team's odds update nationwide.
  3. Sim the rest. Use "Sim this week" or "Sim to Selection Day" — your picks stay locked.
  4. Pick the title games. "Title games" (after the last week) shows each conference's likely championship matchups. Pick a winner — the pick follows that team if it gets there.
  5. Make the bracket yours. Your picks shape the projected bracket — tap See the Bracket on any page. Tap any team to send it through, or edit the 12 to swap in any team. It follows the 2026 rules, so every Power 4 champion and the top Group of 6 team stay in.
  6. Go deeper. Conference pages apply each league's official tiebreakers. Team pages show what your team needs and who to root for.
  7. Share it. Copy a link to your scenario, or download a ready-to-post graphic of your team's odds, the projected 12-team field or your bracket.

Frequently asked questions

What are Texas Tech's chances to make the College Football Playoff?

A 53% chance, according to the A to Z Sports model (6,000 simulated seasons, updated October 18, 2026). The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 6-0 (3-0 in the Big 12). Chance of a first-round bye: 21%. Chance to win the national title: 3%.

What does Texas Tech need to make the playoff?

If Texas Tech finishes the regular season 12-0, it makes the playoff in more than 99% of simulated seasons; at 11-1, 81%; at 10-2, 17%. The biggest game left is vs. Arizona (Sat, Oct 31, Week 9): a win puts Texas Tech at 67%, a loss at 17%. Winning the Big 12 is an automatic bid: Texas Tech wins it in 25% of simulations.

Who should Texas Tech fans root for?

The results elsewhere that help Texas Tech most: Kansas over Baylor (Week 8, +3 points); Arizona St over Oklahoma St (Week 12, +3 points); Kansas over Oklahoma St (Week 13, +2 points). Each number is how much that result alone raises Texas Tech's playoff odds.

Can Texas Tech win the Big 12?

Texas Tech reaches the Big 12 Championship in 52% of simulated seasons and wins the conference in 25%. Ties for a title-game spot are broken with the Big 12's official tiebreakers.

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