Matt LaFleur is one of the best head coaches in the NFL. Since taking over in 2019, he has made the playoffs five out of six times, including two NFC Championship Game appearances. But multiple times, the Green Bay Packers fell short of the ultimate goal.

Just imagine how things could have been different. An extra ring for Aaron Rodgers, or the first title for players like Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. LaFleur himself would be perceived through a completely different lens—just like Nick Sirianni has been, even with less consistency as a head coach.

When teams are so good in deep playoff runs, details change everything. More than once, the Packers were really close to making it to the Super Bowl, but small circumstances affected their path.

These are the four biggest “what ifs” of Matt LaFleur’s era.

What if David Bakhtiari doesn’t get hurt

The Packers had the best team in football back in 2020. The production throughout the regular season was just insane, and Aaron Rodgers had one of his best years in the NFL, winning his third MVP award. On December 31, though, left tackle David Bakhtiari tore his ACL at practice.

Things would never be the same for the offensive lineman, but the short-term impact of that injury is sometimes underrated. The group against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game had Billy Turner at left tackle and Rick Wagner at right tackle, with Elgton Jenkins and Lucas Patrick at guard, and Corey Linsley at center.

Turner and Wagner gave up four of the five sacks and seven of the 17 pressures Rodgers suffered in that game. And the quarterback played under pressure the entire game, making it nearly impossible for him to perform at a high level.

You can make an argument that the Packers made a mistake not playing Elgton Jenkins at tackle to keep Turner on the right side. But either way, a healthy Bakhtiari would’ve allowed the best version of the offense—and the outcome of that game could have been totally different. In the Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs were always hurt along the offensive line, so the what if works for both sides, but the Packers were playing at an absurd level and would have been competitive anyway.

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What if Rodgers scores that infamous TD against the Bucs

Even without Bakhtiari and starting poorly against the Bucs in that NFCCG, the Packers came really close to a second-half comeback. The Packers won the second half 16-10, and drove close to the endzone. With a 3rd & goal from the eight-yard line, Green Bay was down eight points. Aaron Rodgers escaped the pocket and forced an incompletion to Davante Adams. A completed touchdown there, or even a touchdown run from Rodgers that seemed possible, could have changed the entire outlook of the game.

On fourth down, LaFleur (mistakenly) decided to kick the field goal. Down five, the Packers never touched the ball again. Green Bay would still have to convert the two points after the touchdown, but the offense was so hot at that point that this could absolutely have happened.

Don’t let the bs calls all game distract you from the fact that old man Rodgers could’ve ran it in for a TD instead of forcing yet another pass to Adams pic.twitter.com/eieqJAvU9N

— Connor Friedel (@C_Friedel88) January 24, 2021

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What if the punt isn’t blocked in 2021

In the following season, the Packers once again got the first seed in the NFC, but the playoff trajectory wouldn’t even include a win in the divisional round. The Packers lost 13-10 to the San Francisco 49ers, not taking advantage of the best performance of the defense under Joe Barry. Rashan Gary, for instance, had an amazing game.

The offense had a tough night, which included Rodgers, but nothing was worse than the special teams. Mason Crosby had a 39-yard field goal blocked, Deebo Samuel had a 45-yard kickoff return to open the second half, and long snapper Steve Wirtel had a bad snap in the fourth quarter, leading to Corey Bojorquez’s punt being blocked and returned for a touchdown. At that point, the Packers were winning 10-3, and the mistake allowed San Francisco to tie it. To make things even worse, the Packers only had 10 players on the field for the 49ers game-winning field goal minutes later.

It’s hard to know if the Packers would have won the NFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Rams or the Super Bowl over the Cincinnati Bengals, but it was the best team in the NFC. The path wasn’t unrealistic.

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What if the Packers trade Rodgers a year earlier

After two disappointing losses, the Packers decided to give it a go for one more try with the old team. It made sense, and there wasn’t a case of a back-to-back MVP being traded. But with Jordan Love entering his third NFL season and with Rodgers asking for more money and guarantees year after year, there was a real decision to make.

And after the Packers traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, it became impractical that a version of a team that fell short twice would be good enough to make a run without its best offensive weapon. At that time, Brian Gutekunst could have pulled the trigger to trade Rodgers—and this is not hindsight, my opinion at that time was that the Packers should move on after a sincere evaluation.

The Packers ended up paying Rodgers a $42 million salary in 2022 in a season where the team won eight games and missed the playoffs, trading him to the New York Jets in the following offseason.

Green Bay got a first-round swap and a second-round pick in 2023, plus a conditional pick in 2024 that ended up being a second-rounder because Rodgers got hurt. Now, this is what the Denver Broncos (who were reportedly interested in Rodgers) gave up to acquire Russell Wilson in 2022: two first-rounders, two second-rounders, quarterback Drew Lock, defensive lineman Shelby Harris, and tight end Noah Fant. The teams also swapped mid-rounds picks.

Now, there’s a decent argument that Jordan Love wouldn’t be fully ready to take over in 2022. But the difference in capital and money was so significant that Matt LaFleur would probably be able to make it work.

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