ESPN has Commanders taking the same draft risk that led to a former first-round pick getting cut in Year 3
Let's just be real: The Washington Commanders' track record in the NFL Draft was abhorrent under former head coach Ron Rivera and former general manager Martin Mayhew.It is so bad that the four first-round picks made from 2020-2023 are no longer with the team. Two of the four were released and two were traded away. […]
Let's just be real: The Washington Commanders' track record in the NFL Draft was abhorrent under former head coach Ron Rivera and former general manager Martin Mayhew.
It is so bad that the four first-round picks made from 2020-2023 are no longer with the team. Two of the four were released and two were traded away. On top of that, only a handful of the 33 total picks actually made a positive impact on the team.
One of the aforementioned first-rounders, Jamin Davis, is easily one of the biggest disappointments of the bunch. He was taken with the 19th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft after a very good junior year at Kentucky and then an even better pre-draft process, where his athleticism and strong character traits really stood out.
Sure, Davis was still raw, but he showed enough where Rivera and Mayhew felt comfortable pulling the trigger. Unfortunately, nothing went according to plan and Davis was released five games into the 2024 season – just a little more than three years into his career with Washington.
It's always tough pitting upside and past production against one another. Sure, the production may not be there for some guys, but the athleticism and the tape-traits are obvious. There are plenty of reasons why these players never put it together in the NFL, like Davis. So, it's always important to be very mindful when traversing this path.
Sure enough, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. has the Commanders going down said path in his latest/final mock draft: Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart is the guy at No. 29.
Stewart's draft stock is hard to predict. As I mentioned earlier, I considered him for Cincinnati at No. 17. He comes off the board here, 12 spots later. It's the same dilemma that GMs will be struggling with on draft night. Stewart has all the talent in the world — speed, explosiveness and power. But he also had 4.5 sacks over three seasons. If an NFL coaching staff can help him put it all together, the upside is immense. I'm betting on Commanders coach Dan Quinn unlocking that potential. Dante Fowler Jr.'s departure in free agency means there's a hole opposite Dorance Armstrong on the D-line. – Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN
Stewart is cut from nearly the same cloth as Davis, except Davis closed out his collegiate career with a bang and Stewart closed with a whimper. He's never recorded more than 1.5 sacks in a single year and had just one forced turnover in his three years at A&M. Davis, on the other hand, finished his final year with 102 tackles, 1.5 sacks, three interceptions that included a pick-six, a fumble recovery, a forced fumble, and four tackles for loss.
There's no doubt that taking Stewart in the first round is a risk, but it does come with a big reward. It's not all perilous. Where the logic comes in is he's already good at defending the run, is very young at 21-years-old, and has all the uncoachable traits teams look for in potential stars. He's an untapped resource in the pass rush department, but there's no guarantee he can put it all together at the NFL level if he couldn't do it in college and it doesn't matter who's coaching him.
That doesn't erase the risk that would come with this selection, but Dan Quinn and Co. would certainly have a vision and a plan for him. If they pull it off, then they'll have a perennial Pro Bowler on the edge for the foreseeable future. But if they don't, then they'll not only have missed out on a great opportunity to land a difference-maker in the first round, but they'll have to continue the hunt for the alpha pass rusher that is absent from the roster.
Kiper Jr.'s Round 2 selection has a very familiar vibe
Kiper went with Iowa State cornerback Darien Porter Jr. with the 61st overall pick and two items immediately stand out: He logged the second-best three-cone and short shuttle times of all players at the Combine and he's a former wideout-turned-corner like Mike Sainristil.
The three-cone/shuttle times are very interesting because Adam Peters showed a proclivity toward taking guys with elite times in those areas:
Porter is a lot more raw than Sainristil was coming out, though, so he'd definitely be more of a project. There's also the fact he is 25, so finding a way to max out his growth while already in his physical peak will be interesting.
Either way, Kiper Jr.'s two selections have very obvious similarities, which is high-upside traits, but overall questions about productivity and development.
When looking at it that way, they make sense due to the fact that the Commanders are ahead of schedule and can take swings on guys like these. If they hit, this roster is in great shape for a long time. If they miss, though, it'll certainly set the team back a bit when it comes to the big picture.
