The NFL Draft often resembles a dynamic stock market, with constant fluctuations throughout the process. Despite this, a limited amount of new information is available to NFL front offices from the end of the regular season until late April. Events like the Combine and various pro days contribute to this, but scouts have been evaluating prospects for years by the time the 2025 NFL Draft approaches.

A significant shift occurs when evaluations are completed and become more public. Professional mock drafters serve as indicators of how teams value particular players, leading most mock drafts to cluster within a specific range of possibilities. With 257 players to be chosen, numerous risers and fallers exist throughout this three-month period.

However, can we genuinely believe that all the 2025 NFL Mock Draft stock movements are legitimate? By monitoring the latest trends from mock drafters worldwide and comparing them with intel, our evaluations, and historical patterns, we can assess the late changes and make informed decisions on who to buy or sell.

Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama

When Jalen Milroe initially announced his intention to enter the 2025 NFL Draft, it appeared he was confident that an NFL team would invest significantly in him. Although Milroe's performance during the 2024 season at Alabama wasn't stellar, his unique raw talents are undeniably impressive.

Nevertheless, a challenging Senior Bowl week and a lackluster Combine performance as a passer affected his stock. Just a month ago, he was projected to be around the 55th overall pick in mock drafts.

Interestingly, the NFL seems to view Milroe differently, with teams in the late first round to early second round expressing interest. This shift is significant, as teams that select him with a higher pick are likely to give him more time to develop before considering a change.

Fox Sports insider Jordan Schultz recently shared Milroe's upcoming visits, which include the New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks. These teams collectively hold four picks between the 18th and 52nd overall selections, making it a reasonable range for Milroe to be the fourth quarterback chosen.

The Browns and Giants, picking at the top of the second round, are particularly intriguing if they decide to pass on Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart with their No. 2 and No. 3 picks, respectively. Milroe may be a risk, but his athletic traits are exceptionally remarkable.

Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

After being hailed as one of the top quarterback recruits ever, Quinn Ewers didn't quite meet the high expectations set for him during his time at Texas. While he showcased some impressive highlights that many pocket passers could only dream of, his overall consistency was lacking. This includes concerns about his availability, as durability is a significant issue that can heavily impact a player's opportunities on the field.

Instead of being projected as a late first-round pick, he's now aiming to be selected within the top 100. According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, his average draft position currently stands at the 99th pick.

Even with a solid completion percentage of 64.9% on 1,135 passes for 9,128 yards, along with 68 touchdowns and 24 interceptions across three seasons, Ewers is seen as a developmental choice likely to be taken in the middle rounds. The 99th pick is situated at the end of the third round, falling into the compensatory pick territory.

This situation can be precarious for quarterbacks. Teams are often not willing to hold on to a struggling young player for too long, and usually, their only chance at staying relevant is to shine during the preseason. Given his natural talent, it's surprising for Ewers, but it's understandable that teams might be cautious regarding his durability and potential for growth.

Luther Burden, WR, Missouri

While Pierce may be dealing with some fatigue and physical issues, Luther Burden is another prominent name who has frequently been criticized in mock drafts for the top 10 picks this past year. However, that’s where their similarities end. 

Burden’s performance on the field has not matched the level he showed the previous year, raising questions about whether he’s merely an athletically talented offensive player who requires an optimal situation to truly make an impact.

Despite running a 4.41-second 40-yard dash at 206 pounds and being quite similar in style to Deebo Samuel, there are real concerns about Burden’s overall game. 

Scouts had hoped to see his role expand in 2024, but instead, he settled into a more limited slot role without becoming a more versatile player. He didn’t diversify his route tree and managed to produce fewer big plays as defenses focused more on him.

It’s not that Burden had a terrible year; he showed solid numbers, including an impressive drop rate and contested catch rate, while also forcing more missed tackles than before. However, it’s notable that his receiving yards nearly halved despite having 25 fewer receptions.

Now, he’s typically projected to be selected in the second round, indicating a significant decline in his draft stock since January. The NFL seems to be out of favor with the top receivers this year, and Burden’s drop makes sense, given the trends we’ve been seeing recently.

Denzel Burke, CB, Ohio State

It's difficult to identify a 2025 prospect who experienced a drop in stock quite like Ohio State cornerback Denzel Burke this season. After returning to Ohio State for his senior year with the motto "Natty or bust," Burke had a challenging season overall.

Rather than being considered a potential late first-round pick, he is now aiming for a spot within the top 100 selections. As recent updates come in from NFL teams and mock draft analysts, his average draft position has fallen to the 112th pick, according to the NFL Mock Draft Database.

Burke allowed 34 completions on 47 targets for a total of 413 yards and two touchdowns, but notably, only eight of those completions occurred in his last six games, with six happening against Michigan and Notre Dame.

His poor performance against Oregon unwisely overshadowed his season. Although his impact on playmaking diminished—resulting in just two interceptions and two pass breakups—he only committed two penalties. His missed tackle rate drastically decreased from 22.9% in 2023 to 7.5% in 2024.

Pro Football Focus said that Burke achieved the best grades of his career last season in run defense, tackling, and pass rush. Additionally, his coverage grade improved beyond his 2022 performance, leading to a considerably more impressive overall assessment of his four-year career.

There's always a delicate balance in NFL Draft analysis between evaluating players based on small sample sizes and recognizing those examples as potential indicators of future performance. 

Burke possesses a solid floor as a rotational player and is expected to compete for playing time from Day 1. NFL teams are likely to acknowledge this and may select him earlier than current projections suggest.

James Pearce Jr., EDGE, Tennessee

In an era where pass-rushers are valued more than ever, it's surprising to see James Pearce Jr.'s stock decline from a potential top pick in the 2024 draft to being viewed as a fringe first-rounder. 

There are valid concerns about whether his 245-pound frame can withstand the demands of a three-down starter while maintaining his effectiveness against the run, especially given that this isn't a particularly strong class filled with dominant alternatives. However, Pearce demonstrates more qualities of a productive and efficient player than not.

His junior season showcased impressive stats, including a 4.47-second 40-yard dash, career-highs in quarterback hurries, run stops, and tackle efficiency, which only reinforce his status as a quality prospect. Despite this, his average projection in mock drafts has fallen to the 31st pick, with few analysts ranking him among their top 10 players overall. This represents a significant consensus decline.

I find it hard to believe Pearce will entirely drop out of the first round. Several teams in the middle of the first round are in need of an immediate impact player on the edge. It's particularly puzzling that Pearce is being penalized for his size when Jalon Walker, who weighs the same, isn't even a full-time edge-rusher.

There might be some exhaustion with Pearce's name after his sack total dipped slightly in 2024, but overall, it seems like we're overcomplicating the assessment of Pearce as a top-20 prospect.

Jaylin Noel, WR, Virginia Tech

Burden's draft stock is on the decline, which could cause all receivers to drop in ranking. There’s a significant possibility that only two receivers will be selected in the first round, putting second and third-tier receivers at a disadvantage as well. The only way someone like Jaylin Noel from Virginia Tech could rise dramatically is if there’s an unexpected rush for receivers earlier in the draft.

Mock drafts have seen Noel's projection jump from a fifth-round pick to a borderline top-50 selection. There are solid reasons to consider him a Day 2 pick, including his above-average acceleration, impressive deep speed, lower-body explosiveness, and versatility, allowing him to play both inside and outside. Some of his advanced stats even outshine those of Burden.

It's feasible that Noel could be drafted right after or even ahead of Burden, depending on how well he performed in interviews. However, players like Noel, who have limited size and struggle to create after the catch, typically aren't taken before the third round. 

He has forced only seven missed tackles over the past two seasons, and his average yards per route run and yards after catch are not particularly impressive.

This makes him reliant on winning before the catch, a skill at which he excels. However, building an offense around a 5-foot-10 player with 29 ½ inch arms is uncommon.