'They scream regression' – ESPN analyst says Commanders could lose games because they're poised to take a step back in a key area in 2025
2025 is all about taking the next step for the Washington Commanders, but outside of a Super Bowl appearance, what does that truly entail for a team that made the NFC Championship Game in Year 1 under a new coaching staff and front office?That's honestly the toughest question heading into the season. Would a 10-7 […]
2025 is all about taking the next step for the Washington Commanders, but outside of a Super Bowl appearance, what does that truly entail for a team that made the NFC Championship Game in Year 1 under a new coaching staff and front office?
That's honestly the toughest question heading into the season. Would a 10-7 season with wins against tougher opponents (the Commanders beat just two teams with a winning record last year) and another NFCCG appearance be considered a better year than 2024? If Jayden Daniels' numbers decline from last year's, but the team wins more games, is that considered a step forward?
There are plenty more hypotheticals like that to be asked and one centers around the team's insane 87% fourth down conversion rate. The Commanders were almost unstoppable, going 20-of-23 on fourth down in 2024. Per Sharp Football Statistics, the Commanders' fourth down conversion rate is the best of all teams with at least 15 attempts in season. The 2018 New Orleans Saints come in second with an 81% rate.
There are two main reasons why they were successful: Jayden Daniels and the fact that 16 of the 23 attempts were of the fourth and 1 or fourth and 2 variety, a.k.a., fourth and short. Washington was also very calculated in its conversion attempts – it's not like Dan Quinn and co. were just throwing stuff at a wall and hoping it would stick.
So, with all that being said, they should be able to dominate once again in 2025, right? Well, not so fast. What the Commanders did last year was unprecedented for a reason, as that kind of success rate simply doesn't happen often. Going back to the Sharp Football stats, only 13 teams have converted at least 73% of fourth down attempts when attempting a minimum of 15 conversions in a season.
That's 13 out of 798 total possibilities, or 1.6%. Yep – this kind of thing doesn't happen often and it's far less likely it sustains.
And it's the driving point behind the Commanders seeing some kind of regression on fourth down in 2025. It's simply unavoidable and the real question is how far it declines instead of whether or not it does.
And based off the nature of a fourth down conversion and what it means in real time, a regression can easily lead to more losses.
By total EPA added (44.3), this was the most impactful fourth-down season this century. In fact, 23.7% of the Commanders' total points came on drives that included a successful fourth-down conversion, which is the fifth-highest number of the century.
These are significant numbers for the 2025 season because they scream regression. While it's reasonable to expect the Commanders to continue going for it on fourth down and converting at a decent rate (an excellent rushing quarterback is a big part of that), turning just five conversions into failures would have a huge impact on their win column. – Ben Solak, ESPN
But, again, the raw number in itself doesn't tell the whole story. If the Commanders finish with a worse clip than last year, but it doesn't actually cost them games, well then OK. But on the flip side, it'd be easy to see why the regression means more than just a regression. It's all about context, ultimately.
Either way, the team has upgraded the offensive personnel and they still have the same scheme and playcaller in place. In all, the infrastructure to keep things rolling is there, it's just about whether or not the "football universe" decides to pull the Commanders back to the center.
