Ole Miss fans are likely still feeling the sting of what could have been with their 2024 college football season, but all hope is not lost. Yes, the Jaxson Dart era is over. Yes, eight now-NFL players from last year's roster are gone. Still, Rebels fans should feel excited about the 2025 college football season. Why?

New starting quarterback Austin Simmons looks like he's ready to lead. Lane Kiffin and his staff have revamped the roster and should still have both sides of the ball in a good spot. And surprisingly enough, the Ole Miss Rebels boast shockingly high odds (via sports books) to make the College Football Playoff once again.

Ole Miss boast extremely high odds to make the College Football Playoff

Despite losing much of their core from last season, sports books are still quite bullish on the 2025 Ole Miss Rebels. In fact, Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss still rank 10th among all FBS teams in current playoff odds as of this writing. That may shock some Rebels fans, but here's how things stack up among the top ten most likely teams to make the playoff (according to FanDuel):

Rank – School, Odds (Implied Probability)
1 – Ohio State, -320 (76.2%)
2 – Texas, -300 (75%)
3 – Georgia, -265 (72.6%)
4 – Oregon, -260 (72.2%)
5 – Penn State, -230 (69.7%)
6 – Alabama, -158 (61.2%)
7 – Notre Dame, -150 (60%)
8 – Clemson, -142 (58.7%)
9 – LSU, +136 (42.4%)
10 – Ole Miss, +152 (39.7%)

The defending national champions of Ohio State and several of the familiar blue blood faces dominate the top of the odds list to make it to the College Football Playoff this year, with eight teams boasting over 50% implied probability to make it. However, once things get past Clemson–who returns quarterback Cade Klubnik and several likely NFL players–there's clearly a huge gap and real opportunity for teams to steal the last few playoff seeds.

The LSU Tigers return quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and a bevy of high pedigree talents, so it makes sense to see them here alongside or just above Ole Miss, but why exactly are the Rebels so high?

Yes, Austin Simmons should be good. Ole Miss returns some key talents like Cayden Lee at wide receiver and Suntarine Perkins in his hybrid linebacker-pass-rush-specialist role. Lane Kiffin brought in another top five Transfer Portal class with players like Sage Ryan (safety, LSU), Da'Shawn Womack (EDGE, LSU), De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, Oklahoma State), and more. Those are all great things, but the optimism for the Rebels really most likely comes down to the amazing schedule Ole Miss has this fall.

Ole Miss schedule should help Austin Simmons

Ole Miss fell short in a few critical spots last year against Florida, LSU, and Kentucky (somehow), but largely took care of business against the most difficult portions of the schedule (South Carolina and Georgia). They'll need to make sure they take care of business against every opponent they "should" beat this season, but the schedule sets up just about perfectly for Ole Miss to maximize their winning opportunities:

August 30 – vs. Georgia State
September 6 – at Kentucky
September 13 – vs. Arkansas
September 20 – vs. Tulane
September 27 – vs. LSU
October 11 – vs. Washington State
October 18 – at Georgia
October 25 – at Oklahoma
November 1 – vs. South Carolina
November 8 – vs. Citadel
November 15 – vs. Florida
November 28 – at Mississippi State

The Rebels get to warm Austin Simmons up with a home game against Georgia State, away against one of the weakest Kentucky teams in a decade, home against Arkansas, and home against Tulane before they face an opponent who should offer any real challenge. However, even then, they get to host LSU rather than going to face them in Death Valley.

Washington State should be a win. Then they have their toughest stretch at Georgia, at Oklahoma, and home against South Carolina. If Ole Miss emerges from this portion of schedule with just one or two losses it's all going to come down to the Florida game once again. But again, they host the Gators this time.

The home-away splits are obviously advantageous, but the raw strength of schedule is certainly soft for Ole Miss as well. As you can see in the post below, based on their average opponent win total, Ole Miss has the fourth easiest SEC schedule in the conference.

SEC strength of schedule ranked by average opponent win total

***Oklahoma has the toughest schedule in the conference, while Texas has the easiest

***Vanderbilt and MSU have tough schedules because they can't play themselves

***A&M, LSU, Ole Miss set up for playoff runs pic.twitter.com/dDzBWqHC5X

— Will Rosenblatt (@rozenwill) June 28, 2025

When sports books look at the extremely easy schedule (for the SEC), the returning talents, the transfers, and Lane Kiffin at the helm they clearly like what they see. Several things still have to come together and Ole Miss has to execute, but Austin Simmons and the revamped Rebels should once again be one of the best teams in the country facing a beatable schedule. A 40% shot at making the playoff might seem high right now, but it likely won't feel that way for long.

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We'll be back with more Ole Miss Rebels coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!