Commanders' first big move of free agency is a mistake that honestly doesn't make much sense at all
The legal tampering bullets are flying and the Washington Commanders' first big move is agreeing to a three-year, $45 million deal with former first-round pick Javon Kinlaw.Let me be the first to say that unless Kinlaw records at least 10.0+ sacks in every single year of the deal and makes the Pro Bowl in at […]
The legal tampering bullets are flying and the Washington Commanders' first big move is agreeing to a three-year, $45 million deal with former first-round pick Javon Kinlaw.
Let me be the first to say that unless Kinlaw records at least 10.0+ sacks in every single year of the deal and makes the Pro Bowl in at least one of them – it's a terrible deal. And that odds of that not happening are much greater than the alternative.
Kinlaw's resume doesn't warrant this kind of deal, at all. As it currently stands, Kinlaw's average annual value of $15 million per year ranks him 17th among defensive tackles. Since he was drafted in 2020, he has just 9.5 career sacks, which ranks 35th among all defensive tackles. Kinlaw has been nothing more than a rotational player throughout his career, but is receiving starting money from the Commanders.
And as for his ability to stop the run? It's not good. Per Pro Football Focus, Kinlaw has never graded out higher than 50.8 in run defense. To pay this much for a below-average run defender and pass rusher just doesn't make sense. It's essentially the equivalent to paying Clelin Ferrel the same amount of money.
There's also the fact that he received $30 million guaranteed that includes a $16.5 million signing bonus, his 2025 salary of $1.3 million, and his 2026 salary of $12.2 million. Meaning, Kinlaw will be on the roster making very good money for the next two years.
And this comes on the heels of Jonathan Allen's release, along with the fact that Jer'Zhan Newton is still on the roster. Kinlaw will certainly eat into Newton's playing time, which raises questions about where he currently stands, but that's a discussion for another day.
Health has been another issue for Kinlaw. Before the last two seasons, he played in a total of 24 games over the first three years of his career. He appears to be healthy after logging back-to-back fully-healthy seasons, but it still remains to be seen if he's fully moved past the previous knee issues that prevented him from getting on the field.
Javon Kinlaw was a non-factor for the Jets along their defensive line. The former top pick was meant to stabilize the Jets defensive front and instead was all but absent. His one saving grace from 2024 was that he stayed healthy, something he hasn’t been able to do much in his career. – Mike Antoniou, A to Z New York
There's also a question of Kinlaw's character. A few years ago, when he played for the 49ers, he went after a credentialed reporter by appearing on his livestream and hurling profanities at him. The scenario made headlines and general manager John Lynch even got the two guys together in the room to straighten things out.
“I understand that’s your job – but, bruh – you gotta start going about this thing in a different way,” the 49ers defensive tackle continued. “You talk sh*t about everybody on this team, bruh. Nobody f*cks with that. Nobody f*cks with you, bruh. You don’t even understand that. Nobody f*cks with you, brother. You need to go find a new job.”
“The only reason I’m getting on here and stooping to your level, this low, is because I feel like it’s gotta be done,” Kinlaw said. “Somebody gotta do it and it’s gonna be me. Somebody gotta press you, fam. You like to come on here and bully people on the internet. But when I press up on you in f*cking person, you f*cking shaking like a coward and voice lighter than my f*ckking baby…Your balls shriveled up, little d*ck n****.” – Javon Kinlaw, via Awful Announcing
Sure, that was in the past, but the point still stands. Players shouldn't go after the media in that fashion, even if they deserve it (I'm not saying the reporter deserved it, either). Who knows if Kinlaw will blow up like that again and who the target will be? Either way, a player's character is a core part of the Commanders' evaluation process and based off Kinlaw's past, it doesn't quite align with what Adam Peters and Dan Quinn look for.
The connection is obviously Peters, who was in San Francisco when Kinlaw was drafted at No. 14 overall in 2020. He brings a unique blend of size, power, and agility. He can also play up and down the defensive line, but again, he hasn't even gotten close to living up to his first-round billing, or even to a starter-level role. Peters was also part of the front office that turned down his fifth-year option, which says a lot.
Overall, the move is a bad one and it honestly doesn't make a lot of sense when surveying the entire landscape. Peters and Quinn definitely know what they're doing, but I'll be surprised if I end up on the wrong side of this stance, but that definitely remains to be seen and it'll take some time to deliver the final verdict.
Commanders’ tough free agency loss actually opens the door for a better opportunity to upgrade the defense
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