The Green Bay Packers have two months to decide if they will pick up or not Quay Walker's fifth-year option. But guaranteeing $16.472 million for an off-ball linebacker one year ahead of time looks like too much, and Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst acknowledges it.

Nonetheless, the team wants to keep the 2022 first-round pick around for the long-term. The question, now, is how they will do it.

"The linebacker for the fifth-year option is a little wonky because there's so many edge guys that are part of that, which drives up that number, which probably isn't great,” Gutekunst told media members at the NFL Combine according to The Athletic. "But yeah, we'd like to find a way to keep Quay around here long-term, whether that be an extension or something."

So the path is clearer. The most likely scenario includes the Packers declining the option, but then negotiating a new deal to keep Walker beyond 2025, the final year of his rookie deal.

Market value

In 2022, the Packers gave De'Vondre Campbell a five-year, $50 million extension. He was 28 and an external addition, but had just been a First-Team All-Pro. Quay Walker will be 25 by May and was an internal draft pick, but at the same time his performances throughout the last three years haven't been nearly as eye-catching.

Recently, some off-ball linebackers have received relatively strong contracts. Excluding elite players like Roquan Smith and Fred Warner, the market is around $7.5 million and $13.66 million per year.

Patrick Queen got the high end of that with the Pittsburgh Steelers last offseason. Azeez Al-Shaair is making $11.33 million per season with the Houston Texans, while Indianapolis Colts' Zaire Franklin and New York Giants' Bobby Okereke are getting around $10 million, which was also De'Vondre Campbell's average with the Packers.

With the recent cap growth, which has been consistent, there's also a cap inflation to consider. It's hard to think that Quay Walker would accept anything below the $10 million mark, even though Jordyn Brooks is also a former first-rounder and got $8.75 million per year.

Contract structure

For Quay Walker, it would be realistic to expect a three-year, $35 million total extension. That would mean $11.66 million per year. The Packers usually don't give guarantees beyond Year 1 for non-quarterbacks, so it would include something around a $12 million signing bonus and the minimum salary in the first year to lower the initial cap hit.

But combining the new money to what Walker is already slated to make in 2025, $2.592 million, and you can see the logic behind a team-friendlier structure. It would actually be a four-year, $37.592 million contract ($9.398 million yearly average), plus a $1,811 million cap hit in 2025 for the rookie signing bônus proration—it's money already but that hadn't hit the cap yet.

Yearly breakdown example

• New contract: 3 years, $35 million
• Yearly average: $11.66 million
• Guaranteed at signing: $13.1 million ($12 million signing bonus + 2025 base salary)
• Total contract: 4 years, $37.592 million

2025

• Base salary: $1.1 million
• Signing bonus proration: $3 million
• Old signing bonus proration: $1.811 million
• Cash: $13.1 million
• Cap hit: $5.911 million (adding $1.5 million to the current number)

2026

• Base salary: $1.215 million
• Roster bonus: $3 million
• Signing bonus proration: $3 million
• Cash: $4.215 million
• Cap hit: $7.215 million

2027

• Base salary: $3 million
• Roster bonus: $5 million
• Signing bonus proration: $3 million
• Cash: $8 million
• Cap hit: $11 million

2028

• Base salary: $12.277 million
• Signing bonus proration: $3 million
• Cash: $12.277 million
• Cap hit: $15.277 million

Under these circumstances, the Packers would guarantee Quay only one year of his deal, but the second year would also be practically guaranteed based on the structure. After that, the Packers would still have a cheap option year in 2027, and a heavier number in 2028.

But at that point, the cap will be much higher and the dead money for an eventual release would only be $3 million, without cash guarantees.

The fifth-year option is just a lot of money for an off-ball linebacker, especially for one who hasn't been as productive. But a mid-level extension is actually a good framing for all involved, and a smart way to keep a player the front office and the coaching staff both trust.

Brian Gutekunst can’t compound a past mistake, because the market is screaming it would be the wrong step for the Packers

It’s just too much money