2025 NFL Draft Mailbag: All-Overrated team, risers, fallers, player comparisons, and the best Day Three wide receiver

We are now less than three weeks until the 2025 NFL Draft officially kicks off. It has been a long last few months, filled with scouting reports, mock drafts, positional rankings, and intel. There has also been a fair amount of mailbags sprinkled in as well. In this week’s mailbag, we are talking about everything […]

Ryan Roberts — National College Football Writer
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Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) calls a play during the first quarter of the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We are now less than three weeks until the 2025 NFL Draft officially kicks off. It has been a long last few months, filled with scouting reports, mock drafts, positional rankings, and intel. There has also been a fair amount of mailbags sprinkled in as well.

In this week’s mailbag, we are talking about everything from fallers, risers, overrated prospects, and Day Three values at wide receivers. As always, a shoutout to everyone who submitted questions this week. Let’s talk 2025 NFL Draft.

Biggest reach and value pick

Of the players who are reasonably expected to be first rounders, North Dakota State offensive lineman Greg Zabel is the biggest potential reach. He’s a solid football player but he’s really living off of his performance during the 2025 Reese’s Senior Bowl. Zabel has quality film during the last couple of years for the Bison, but at no point does it scream “first round draft pick.” The hype has gotten out of hand.

If Tennessee pass rusher James Pearce Jr. does end up going in the late first round, he has a chance to be a tremendous value selection. Some off the field concerns continue to swirl, but if Pearce is able to silence them, he is a top ten talent in this class. Pearce strikes me as a value the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, or Kansas City Chiefs consistently find.

Predictive mock

Okay, let’s give it a shot. I’m sure none of these will end up working out, but here we go.

Round 1, Pick 25: Houston Texans – Kelvin Banks, OT Texas

Round 2, Pick 33: Cleveland Browns – Jalen Milroe, QB Alabama

Round 3, Pick 75: San Francisco 49ers – Jalen Royals, WR Utah State

Round 4, Pick 116: Miami Dolphins – Charles Grant, OT William & Mary

Round 5, Pick 151: Indianapolis Colts – Jah Joyner, EDGE Minnesota

Round 6, Pick 190: Los Angeles Rams – Jason Marshall, CB Florida

Round 7, Pick 234: Seattle Seahawks – Max Brosmer, QB Minnesota

Most overrated prospects

This question might get me in some trouble, so make sure to submit your questions/complaints to HR@idontcare.com. Here is my All-Overrated team for the 2025 class.

Quarterback: Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss)

Running back: Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)

Wide receiver: Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)

Tight end: Harold Fannin Jr. (Bowling Green)

Offensive line: Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)

Defensive line: Walter Nolen (Ole Miss)

Linebacker: Danny Stutsman (Oklahoma)

Cornerback: Trey Amos (Ole Miss)

Safety: Malachi Moor (Alabama)… I guess?

All-Instincts Team

When you talk about instincts, my mind immediately goes to the defensive side of the football. Defense is more reactionary, so the ability to read and react quickly is paramount. In the 2025 class, three defenders that stick out immediately when regarding instincts are Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts, Ole Miss linebacker Chris Paul, and Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron. All three players always seem to be in the right place at the right time.

All I do is work, work, work, work, work

Work ethic is a bit hard to quantify on film. Based on things I’ve heard, it’s hard to believe that anyone rivals Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka in that regard. From people I’ve spoken to behind the scenes, everyone raves about the extra hours that Egbuka puts into his craft. Someone in the program marveled about “his obsession with the grind.”

Talking risers and fallers

When you talk about fallers, there are a few things to consider. During this time of the year, it’s about medicals and character concerns. Those things really cause players to fall down boards. One player that I maintain is getting too much hype right now is Ole Miss defensive tackle Walter Nolen. Nobody will question the talent, but some are seriously overlooking motor issues on film.

Off of the field, character concerns continue to follow Nolen. These issues did not just start with the Rebels this past season. Things have been swirling here while he was still in high school, and also while with the Texas A&M program. Several prominent NFL Draft analysts with strong contacts in the league have begun to keep Nolen out of first round mocks. Read the room.

As for risers, I continue to hear great things about both Toledo defensive tackle Darius Alexander and Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel. Each player has dominated every part of the draft process and feels locked into a top 50 selection at worst.

Day three wide receivers

This year’s wide receiver group has been an interesting one. Most would agree that it is one of the weaker groups to come out in several years, but it also isn’t nearly as bad as some act like it is. From the Day Three bucket of players, I’m a big fan of Daniel Jackson from Minnesota. He is, for whatever reason, very underrated in this class. Jackson isn’t the biggest receiver but is a very good athlete, a detailed route runner, and makes some great adjustments tracking down the field.

The thinnest groups

It’s probably offensive tackle, and more specifically, left tackle. With several of the top offensive tackles on the board potentially projecting better inside, such as Will Campbell and Kelvin Banks, it is a group without many sure-fire answers. Outside of Josh Simmons from Ohio State, who are you comfortable playing on the blindside with no issues?

Trading in the 2025 NFL Draft

A team that could be a candidate to trade up in the draft is the Houston Texans. They have a couple of gaping holes on the offensive after trading away Laremy Tunsil and Kenyon Green. There could be some desperation for Houston to find some answers, and with them picking at No. 25 currently, they could be in a tough spot if the offensive line run starts early. Moving up to avoid another 2019 NFL Draft situation would be wise.

One team that could be best served by trading back is the Chicago Bears. The team did a nice job of filling several needs on the roster this offseason, which makes selecting for them very interesting. They are currently selecting at No. 10 overall, which is a bit of no man’s land in the first round. This is not a top heavy draft and there will be a bit of a dropoff at that point in the draft.

Top player comp

That’s a great question, and a really difficult one for me to answer because there are several player comparisons I really like this cycle. If I had to pick just one, I’d probably go with Texas wide receiver Matthew Golden and former Seattle Seahawks star Doug Baldwin. I think most people would agree that Golden doesn’t play like a guy who ran a 4.28-second forty-yard dash. Golden wins more with his ability as a route runner, body control, and ball skills. He does a lot of the little things well, just like Baldwin did. I’ll throw out an honorable mention for my comparison between Kenneth Grant (Michigan) and Dontari Poe. 

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