When the New England Patriots hired Mike Vrabel early in the 2025 offseason, nobody was surprised. The prodigal son was returning home to coach the team he won his Super Bowl rings with; the place where he had been inducted into the team Hall of Fame just 15 months earlier. He was the consensus top coaching candidate on the market (save perhaps Ben Johnson) and in his capacity as a coach, reviews of the hiring were resoundingly positive.

But Mike Vrabel is the kind of coach who prefers more than just the power of his whistle on the field. If you followed his time with the Tennessee Titans at all, you know he’s long been involved in personnel decision making. He’s the kind of alpha who wants a say in everything regarding the construction and maintenance of his ball club. And this is the area of his job performance that carries with it the most concern.

Vrabel the General Manager

Vrabel likes having His Guys in the building. He likes playing football a very specific kind of way, and he wants the makeup of his roster to reflect that. Now, is this something that’s unique to him? Of course not. Every coach knows exactly what kind of personnel they want, and exactly how they’d like to play. But Vrabel’s style has bucked the modern norm for a while now, and unlike many coaches in the league, he’s had the power to actually get his way.

That’s certainly the case in New England. In fact, he may have more roster control now than he’s ever had up to this point in his career. In interviews since accepting the job, he’s all but acknowledged it’s the case. He’s the one who built out his entire coaching staff, he’s the one who reorganized the front office structure, and he’s the one alongside Patriots EVP/Player Personnel Eliot Wolf building out their new team. And boy, have they been busy building.

Repeating Mistakes of Free Agency Past

The Patriots have been the biggest spenders in Free Agency this year. And frankly, a number of the contracts they’ve handed out have been a bit suspect.

They signed former Eagles DL Milton Williams to an eye-watering 4yr/$104M deal. Williams is a very good player, but that’s a very rich contract few saw coming. They also signed a pair of former Vrabel-era Titans on the defensive side of the ball: EDGE Harold Landry (3yr/43.5M) and LB Robert Spillane (3yr/$37M). Both contracts raised a lot of eyebrows. CB Carlton Davis was signed to a 3yr/$60M deal as well.

On the offensive side of the ball they most recently added WR Stefon Diggs for 3yr/$69M, which is a big fat funny money contract. His guaranteed money is just $26M, but even that for a 31 year old coming off an ACL injury is a ton of money! Then there’s C Garrett Bradbury (2yr/$12M), OT Morgan Moses (3yr/ $24M), QB Josh Dobbs (2yr/$8M), and WR Mack Hollins (2yr/$8.4M) to round out their new multi-year contracts. There are a half-dozen additional 1 year deals as well.

Sound familiar? It should, because this is the kind of approach in free agency the Titans took last year right after Vrabel was fired. It’s also the kind of spending the Patriots chose to do in 2021. Both instances of pricey team-building failed to aged well. It’s the kind of spending that historically rarely—if ever—works.

The fundamental difference between this Patriots team and the 2024 Titans or the 2021 Patriots who behaved similarly is that Drake Maye appears to be a franchise QB. The '24 Titans had Year 2 Will Levis who was still a question mark, and the '21 Patriots were about to draft Mac Jones that April when they made all of their free agent moves. So perhaps the Patriots are pushing their chips in on this rookie window already by making some rich and risky signings.

But even then, the quality of the players and how much they paid them are highly questionable if you ask me. Pair that with what history tells us about this kind of spending, and I'm not holding my breath on the 2025 Patriots getting their money's worth.

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