The NFL Draft has been the one truly weak spot for Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. 

It hasn't all been bad for the Vikings in the NFL Draft over the first three years of his tenure, but the lack of success in the 2022 NFL Draft has been most of the criticism he's received, and it's valid. The Vikings made four selections in the first 66 picks, and only one remains on the team: ILB Brian Asamoah, and he's a special teams player.

Since then, Adofo-Mensah has evolved his process over the following two drafts, and we have enough data to start deciphering the process he uses. 

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Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's NFL Draft history in round one

Three years is the standard for truly judging a draft class because it takes time to adjust to the National Football League. That standard is about the success and trajectory of the player. However, this isn't about that.

I want to look at how Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings are targeting players in the first round to see if there is anything we can use to project how that could impact their approach at the end of April. We don't have a huge data set here to work with like we did with Rick Spielman, but there is some interesting signal.

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The selections

The Vikings have made four selections in the first round since Adofo-Mensah was hired.

• 2022: S Lewis Cine (32nd overall)
• 2023: WR Jordan Addison (23rd overall)
  
• 2024: QB J.J. McCarthy (10th overall), EDGE Dallas Turner (17th overall)

One trend that Adofo-Mensah has is trading first-round picks. Of those three, only one was the Vikings' original pick in 2023. He traded down from 12 to 32 in 2022, up from 11 to 10, 42 to 23, and 23 to 17 in 2024. How those trades break down can be found below. I've also written about Adofo-Mensah's NFL Draft trade history in excruciating detail, which you can find here.

There hasn't been a ton of consistency with how Adofo-Mensah has gone about these trades. He's only won on the analytical charts once, while winning on the standard trade charts twice. The Jets trade technically lost value across all of the trade charts, but it was minimal and honestly doesn't matter too much because it was for a quarterback.

This is something that we should be looking for in every first round from Adofo-Mensah, as he's always trying to find market advantages, and trading up and down can accomplish just that.

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Common themes in Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's drafting

As I look more in-depth into how Adofo-Mensah has attacked the NFL Draft in the first round, there are some interesting trends that arise.

Power Four Schools

Over his 22 selections, Adofo-Mensah has only selected two players that weren't from a power four institution:

• 2023: UAB RB DeWayne McBride: seventh-round pick
• 2024: Texas A&M Commerce DT Levi Drake Rodriguez: seventh-round pick

You could argue that 2023 fifth-round pick QB Jaren Hall wasn't from a P4 school, as BYU was an independent during his final season with the Cougars, joining the Big 12 the following season in 2023.

That also means it's consistent in the first six rounds. Of the four first-round picks:

• SEC: 2
• Big Ten: 2 (Addison was technically from the now defunct Pac 12)

Adofo-Mensah prioritizes prospects from the best schools, likely because it's the highest level of competition. That's something he got from his mentor in Cleveland, Andrew Berry.

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Age

Adofo-Mensah is viewed as the analytics general manager. That brings along with it some preconceived notions, some of which are true and others false. One of those is age. The younger you draft a player, the more value you can get out of the player's prime with a second, potentially third, contract. For example, Justin Jefferson's second contract expires when he turns 30, giving the Vikings the ability to have their star players with them for longer.

Cine is the only first-round pick the Vikings have made under Adofo-Mensah age 22 or older at approximately 22.6 years old on draft day. The last two years, Addison, McCarthy, and Turner were all approximately 21.25 years old. That means they will be eligible for extensions when they are 24 years old,d and a four-year extension would mean it expires by the time they are 30.

Later on in the draft, the Vikings have been more willing to forgo age. Of the Vikings' day-three picks, only four have been under the age of 23

• 2022: Fourth round CB Akayleb Evans (22.8)
• 2023: Fourth-round S Jay Ward (22.8)
• 2023: Fifth-round DT Jaquelin Roy (22.5)
• 2023: Seventh-round RB DeWayne McBride (21.6) 

Age is going to be a major factor when Adofo-Mensah picks in the first round. If it isn't, it would honestly be a surprise.

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Movement skills

This is one that comes with broad overtones. Cine (98.8th percentile) and Turner (99.7th percentile) had elite 40-yard dash times. Their 10-yard splits were also elite (Cine: 99.8th percentile, Turner: 90.3rd percentile). While McCarthy didn't test other than the short shuttle (82.9th percentile) and three-cone (96th percentile), it's a different type of movement skills with Addison.

He tested well enough athletically across the board. Nowhere close to elite, but solid.

• 40-yard dash: 77.8th percentile
• 10-yard split: 73.3rd percentile
• Short shuttle: 75.8th percentile
• 3 cone: 52.5th percentile

It wasn't the athletic testing that had the Vikings wanting to draft Addison, it was his movement skills on the field and the ability to succeed isolated in one-on-one coverage with Justin Jefferson getting so much attention.

"I think it is very important that any receiver that plays in our offense," O'Connell said. "Regardless of personnel group, [when] you're in the game with Justin Jefferson, for us to have the ability to move him around, and then activate you versus some of the premier coverage looks you can get with how people defend Justin. I think [Addison] gives us a chance to do a lot of different things, and then pair him with K.J., possibly working against single coverage and working away from some of the overloaded looks that Justin tends to see. We want to make people pay for that."

Addison's route running is truly spectacular, and that's hard to measure with athletic testing. He is very similar to Jefferson with his route running, which was the appeal.

Having great movement skills is going to be paramount for the Vikings, whatever position you play.

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Who fits the bill

This is where things get really interesting. The Vikings could go a bunch of different directions, but using the data that we have, these are the likely players that fit the bill.

It's worth noting that so far, the Vikings have only taken players at positions of need and premium positions the last three years, so EDGE and ILB might not be in play like the others, but it's not something I'm willing to rule out, as Andrew Van Ginkel and Ivan Pace Jr. are technically free agents after the season ends.

There is one thing that is important to understand. This is a very small sample size, so we can't say anything is for certain. However, four selections gives us the beginning of a signal on how Adofo-Mensah will project things moving forward.

• Alabama ILB Jihaad Campbell: 21.2 years old, 9.88 RAS
• Georgia EDGE/ILB Jalon Walker: 21.2 years old, N/A RAS
• Georgia S Malaki Starks: 21.4 years old, average testing with 5.22 RAS, great mover on film
• Michigan DT Kenneth Grant: 21.5 years old, 7.27 RAS, elite movement skills at 331 lbs
• Missouri WR Luther Burden III: 21.4 years old, N/A RAS, 92.9th percentile 40-yard dash
• Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen: 21.5 years old, N/A RAS
• Oregon DT Derrick Harmon: 21.8 years old, N/A RAS, great penetrator
• South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori: 21.2 years old, 10.0 RAS
• Texas A&M EDGE Nic Scourton: 20.6 years old, N/A RAS

April's NFL Draft will tell us if Adofo-Mensah's process will evolve, but as things currently stand, this is the direction I believe they are going.

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