The NFL Draft revolves around making strategic decisions. Teams need to not only identify players who fit their specific schemes and situations but also assess the likelihood that these prospects possess the right attitude and the right mix of high potential and low risk. Each player presents a distinct chance of thriving or failing, along with a unique range of possible best- and worst-case outcomes.

While it’s impossible to predict with certainty how every prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft will turn out, we can use our insights as observers to estimate the chances that certain players will reach their potential or miss the mark. Additionally, we've made educated guesses about their boom-or-bust potential based on the experiences of similar players over the past decade.

Having a risky prospect doesn’t automatically mean teams should steer clear of them. It’s challenging to discover a future All-Pro or Pro Bowler without embracing some level of risk. Which of the top prospects will be worth taking a gamble on this April?

5 Riskiest 2025 NFL Draft Prospects

5. Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss

There are moments when watching Walter Nolen on the field brings to mind the dominance of Gerald McCoy or Aaron Donald. At 296 pounds, his speed and agility are striking, often making him appear smaller as he changes directions with an unusual quickness. Teams are banking on these standout traits.

In 2024, Nolen's performance surged compared to previous years, marked by a significant increase in advanced statistics. His quarterback hurries tripled, and he surpassed his previous best in run stops. However, there remains some skepticism within the league regarding Nolen's consistency and his drive to achieve his full potential.

While these doubts may turn out to be unfounded, history shows that talented defensive tackles lacking a strong work ethic are more likely to falter compared to other positions. The physical demands of the trenches require a great deal of toughness. If Nolen can remain resilient and driven, he has the potential for significant success, though that lofty expectation may not always be realistic, even if he is among the hardest workers.

4. Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall

Mike Green's background from Marshall raises questions about his ability to compete with top-tier NFL players. He had limited chances to face Power 5 teams, which leads some to disregard his impressive season, even though he recorded four sacks against Virginia Tech, Ohio State, and in the Conference Championship game against Louisiana. His decision to skip the 40-yard dash at the Combine didn't help alleviate concerns either.

However, Green's overall profile and game tape are impressive. He achieved elite times in the short shuttle and 3-cone drills, clocking in at 4.25 seconds and 6.85 seconds, respectively. Weighing in at 251 pounds and standing 6-foot-3, he checks many boxes. His season, featuring 17 sacks and 59 pressures, marks him as an excellent prospect.

While he's a strong run defender and an exceptional pass rusher, questions about the level of competition he faced will linger until proven otherwise. Additionally, his career missed tackle rate of 14.3% raises concerns about whether his play strength will translate to the NFL. I believe in Green's potential, given his strong traits, but it’s fair to acknowledge the risks of him not succeeding.

3. Cameron Ward, QB, Miami (FL)

It appears that Cameron Ward is on track to become Tennessee's next quarterback. As a likely No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, he stands out from the competition. In 2024, he recorded impressive career numbers at Miami and showcased a remarkable physical skill set that’s hard to overlook.

Interestingly, Ward’s best NFL comparison may be Jordan Love. When Love entered the league from Utah State, he possessed a fluid passing motion that effortlessly delivered velocity at every level of the field. When his touch was precise, few could throw a prettier ball, and Ward has the potential to impress in a similar way.

However, Ward's mechanics, his capability to lead receivers into open space, and his tendency to avoid turnover-prone throws have been inconsistent. Love worked out many of his flaws as a backup in Green Bay, but Ward won’t benefit from having someone like Aaron Rodgers above him on the depth chart or an established coach like Matt LaFleur. The circumstances are crucial for quarterbacks, just as they are for any position.

Ward will find himself in a low-pressure environment, although the team lacks both talent and a solid identity. While the potential is evident, the other factors remain uncertain.

2. Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M

Shemar Stewart is an exceptional athlete, becoming one of only three edge rushers in the past 25 years, alongside Myles Garrett and Mario Williams, to run a sub-4.7 40-yard dash, jump at least 40 inches, and achieve a broad jump of at least 117 inches. With an impressive performance at the Senior Bowl, there’s a strong case for him to be a top-five pick in any draft class.

The issue with Stewart isn't his athleticism; rather, it's his on-field production. With only 4.5 career sacks and somewhat average pressure statistics over his three years in college, he hasn’t fully utilized his physical abilities during games. His pressure numbers are decent, but a missed tackle rate of 23.5% in 2024 raises concerns.

His future coaching staff will need to focus on developing his strategy, hand placement, and anticipation skills. While there’s a lot of potential and upside to invest in, Stewart has significant work ahead of him to reach his full potential.

1. Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama

The success rate of quarterbacks is generally low, particularly for those selected outside the top 10 picks. Teams that draft quarterbacks later tend to have a better chance of finding a more promising prospect shortly afterward. The notable exceptions occur when players chosen in the later rounds actually thrive.

Jalen Milroe faces a challenging path if he hopes to become a success like those chosen in Round 2. The exceptional athlete from Alabama possesses a powerful arm and is an impressive runner, but both his accuracy and decision-making leave much to be desired. 

He will require time and proper repetitions within the right system to evolve beyond just a physical talent focused on making highlight-reel plays.

That said, only Ward can match Milroe’s elite athleticism in this draft class. The potential reward is that he could emulate the success of former Alabama standout Jalen Hurts or become an improved version of Tyrod Taylor. Given those possibilities, it could be worthwhile to draft and develop Milroe.