Why the NFL should, shouldn't and flat out can't change to a draft lottery format like the NBA to prevent tanking in the future
The NBA Draft lottery brought a massive shock to the sport world this past week. The Dallas Mavericks received the top pick, which will likely turn into Cooper Flagg even though they only had a 1.8% chance. The shock and mystery surrounding the NBA draft lottery each year always lead to people in the NFL wondering […]
The NBA Draft lottery brought a massive shock to the sport world this past week.
The Dallas Mavericks received the top pick, which will likely turn into Cooper Flagg even though they only had a 1.8% chance. The shock and mystery surrounding the NBA draft lottery each year always lead to people in the NFL wondering if the league would ever adopt the format.
Three of us here at A to Z Sports shared our thoughts on the topic. Below, you can read why the NFL should, shouldn't, and flat out can't do so.
Why the NFL should adopt a draft lottery format
Changing to a draft lottery format would be a drastic change for the NFL. But it's one that could make a lot of sense. The NBA's draft lottery is an exciting event each year, and it helps prevent something every sports league tries to stop every season: tanking. Take this year's NBA draft lottery, for example. The teams with the top three odds for the pick were all accused of tanking to end the season: the Wizards, Hornets, and Jazz. None of them ended up getting that pick. I don't think it would be wise for the NFL to adopt the exact same lottery system as the NFL. I believe they should do a lottery for the top five picks and allow the rest to fall via the standings.
That would help to prevent bad football teams like the New York Giants and New England Patriots last season, for example, that won games late in the year and were punished for it, while the Tennessee Titans ended up landing the top pick as a result. It's even more interesting when you look at the fact that the Patriots were playing mostly backups from the Buffalo Bills in that game, so if they lose that game, people accuse them of tanking, and if they win that game, their draft pick takes a major hit. I think creating a draft lottery that uses fewer teams than the NBA would still help the worst teams in the league get better each year. While also stopping teams from not trying to win games down the stretch, and making for a better on-field product. Let alone, it gives the NFL another event each year that millions of people would tune in to watch, and provide them another event the draft host city could host and making the event even more valuable each year. Which we all know is the part that the NFL would care the most about if they elected to do it.
– Destin Adams, A to Z Sports Colts Beat Writer
Why the NFL shouldn't adopt a draft lottery format
The whole reason the NBA has adopted the draft lottery is to prevent tanking. By leaving whoever is awarded the number one overall pick to chance instead of the worst record, it incentivizes a better product. One where teams aren't playing 10-day contracts and G League players the last two months of the season.
The reason the NFL doesn't need to adopt said lottery is that players in the league can't afford to tank the way they can in the association. For one, 90% of the contacts in the NBA are guaranteed, as opposed to only 57% in the NFL. The earning potential is not only lower in terms of the top of the market contract value, but also in terms of career duration. Most NFL players are just hoping they remain healthy long enough to earn a second contract. That's also why tanking can't exist and doesn't really exist in the NFL. You play half speed, or without 100% effort, you get injured. So sure, can teams do things like trade away stars, or not use their cap space, leading some to wonder if they are tanking? Of course. But no one on that field is tanking the way players can on the court, and that's why the NFL doesn't need a lottery.
– Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports Steelers Beat Writer
Why the NFL can't adopt a draft lottery format
The one thing that separates the NFL from the rest of the league is how they've built the entire model to maintain parity and competitiveness. There is a strict salary cap with a 90% rolling cash floor over a five-year period. The NFL is set up to be a league that wants each team to be at 0.500 from a structural standpoint. The only thing that will separate the teams from each other is the skill of the front office, ownership, coaches, and players. Having those guardrails is important to keep balance, competitiveness thriving, and prevent owners from being cheap like they are in other sports.
Now, that doesn't mean you won't have teams who are consistently great or those that historically struggle. That isn't due to the system that's put into place by the league, but the variables of the personnel in each building are the cause for that.
The NFL instituting a draft lottery would create a litany of issues, but the biggest one would be going against the ethos of what the league is built upon. That's not something that works when you are trying to maintain parity. Just look at the Dallas Mavericks, who had a 1.8% chance to win the NBA Draft lottery after making the play in round, while they were also in the NBA Finals last year and were primed to make a playoff run, but had injuries crater the season. That's not something that will create parity throughout the NBA, especially since one player can make your franchise more than in any other sport.
Instituting a draft lottery would be one of the worst things the NFL could do.
– Tyler Forness, A to Z Sports Vikings Beat Writer
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