Packers' savvy draft moves target a market inefficiency and add positional value to their evolving roster
The draft is now over. The Green Bay Packers have added eight draft picks and 11 undrafted players to the 90-man roster, and now it's time to evaluate what the roster looks like.This is our first post-draft Packers mailbag, and we have several good questions to lead our discussions about the team. Based purely on […]
The draft is now over. The Green Bay Packers have added eight draft picks and 11 undrafted players to the 90-man roster, and now it's time to evaluate what the roster looks like.
This is our first post-draft Packers mailbag, and we have several good questions to lead our discussions about the team.
Based purely on positional value, it was an excellent draft for the Packers. They took two wide receivers, a tackle, an edge rusher (or two, depending on how they’ll use Collin Oliver), a cornerback, and a defensive tackle, all positions with great value.
But I’ll add the consensus board to this conversation, because it also matters a lot to determine how successful a process was to select a player. With all that considered, Matthew Golden is undoubtedly the best pick. He was the 18th player on the consensus board and plays a position where, since 2020, first-round players have generated a $20 million surplus value throughout their rookie contracts on average.
Personally, I loved the Barryn Sorrell pick in the fourth round, and that's the pick with the most value upside. But he was the 143rd pick on the consensus board (went 124th overall), and Day 3 edges don't tend to hit as frequently.
I highly doubt it. First, because Brian Gutekunst has already said he doesn’t like to trade picks for veterans, unless it’s someone transformative. But also because giving up capital for expensive and older cornerbacks is simply a bad process—it’s a position where the cliff comes particularly fast. It would make more sense to add a free agent like Kendall Fuller, Rasul Douglas, or Asante Samuel Jr.
Overall, though, my perception is that the Packers changed their approach to the position with Jeff Hafley as the defensive coordinator. They are going with a weak-link perspective, instead of trying to add top players. The problem now is exactly that: they are one injury away from potentially having a real weak link in the mix.
NFL teams divide their front office by position. Each group of people is responsible for calling specific targets at particular positions. They try to get priority free agents signed as soon as possible to avoid more competition, and it's kind of an insane process.
The groups have specific targets and also a specific amount of signing bonuses and guaranteed money they can offer, so the team doesn't explode the budget. For example, the Packers gave a $15k signing bonus and $115k in guarantees to undrafted safety Johnathan Baldwin, from UNLV. It's an indication that the rookie has a shot at making at least the practice squad.
They also have to send invites for the rookie minicamp, and that's used for players down the priority board. Usually, one or two players who go to minicamp unsigned end up with a contract.
We can anticipate that the coaches will be creative and multiple on both sides of the ball. Versatility is a big point of emphasis for Brian Gutekunst, but it seems that it’s also for the coaching staff now. In today’s NFL, it’s relevant to have similar pre-snap looks and multiple after the play begins, and the Packers are getting useful players for that purpose.
The most obvious examples are Savion Williams and Collin Oliver. Williams is a wide receiver, but he can also play running back and wildcat quarterback. Oliver can play edge or off-ball linebacker. And they also drafted Isaiah Simmons right after the draft, a player who can be an off-ball linebacker or strong safety.
The Packers clearly trust Matt LaFleur and Jeff Hafley to make the most out of these new pieces.
Golden has been compared to Santonio Holmes, who had 49 catches, 824 yards, and two touchdowns as a rookie for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2006. Jayden Reed finished his rookie season with 64 catches, 793 yards, and eight touchdowns in 2023.
Realistically, Matthew Golden can get something in this range. I would predict something around 55 catches, 800 yards, and five touchdowns.
The detail is that Golden wasn't a highly productive college player. The Packers are once again betting on traits, and it will be interesting to see when those traits will come into fruition.
I made a way-too-early roster prediction here. Considering that Christian Watson will start the regular season on the physically unable to perform list, the room has five locks: Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Savion Williams. That's if Doubs doesn't get traded.
The sixth spot will be up for grabs. Malik Heath has the highest upside at this point, but Mecole Hardman offers more to special teams. Bo Melton is probably the odd man out, and let's see if the Packers can get him back on the practice squad.
In base defense, I expect the Packers to play Keisean Nixon and Nate Hobbs as boundary cornerbacks. When they go to nickel, Hobbs moves inside and Carrington Valentine gets in to play opposite Nixon. The immediate backup option is putting Javon Bullard in the nickel, which gives them some level of flexibility with Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams playing at safety.
It's not a desperate situation, unless injuries hit them—and Hobbs has a concerning injury history.
At this point, Jaire Alexander has no trade value. The interested teams are trying to force him to take a paycut, and there has been no indication so far that he will do it—and if he does, the Packers may simply keep him.
It's realistic to trade Romeo Doubs for a cornerback, but player-for-player trades are always tricky. If they do trade Doubs, I'd expect a draft pick as compensation.
Packers sent loud messages with every draft decision and the long-term impact on the roster is already taking shape
Green Bay made some intriguing choices
