Terry McLaurin's incredible 2024 season is just a sign of things to come with Jayden Daniels at quarterback
Terry McLaurin has found a way to rank among the NFL's best wide receivers despite not having a true franchise quarterback for the first five seasons of his career, so it's no surprise he's having his best season yet with Jayden Daniels at the helm.Sure, on the surface, McLaurin probably won't set career-highs in receptions […]
Terry McLaurin has found a way to rank among the NFL's best wide receivers despite not having a true franchise quarterback for the first five seasons of his career, so it's no surprise he's having his best season yet with Jayden Daniels at the helm.
Sure, on the surface, McLaurin probably won't set career-highs in receptions or yards since he'd need to have a game where he goes off for at least 14 receptions and 188 receiving yards. But, he's already smoked his old career-best of seven touchdowns and he's on pace to finish the year with his best catch rate, ever.
And when you do a deeper dive into the more advanced metrics, he easily stands out among the NFL's most elite wideouts. In fact, he's ahead of just about all of them.
Per Next Gen Stats, McLaurin currently has a 12.0% catch rate over expected, which is No. 1 among the top-32 wideouts with the most receiving yards through Week 17. His 12 touchdowns are tied for second-most and he's second in total EPA accrued throughout the season at +66.2. He's also seventh in catch rate at 70.7% and his 14.1 air yards per target are second to only Calvin Ridley of the Tennessee Titans.
That last number is what makes McLaurin's season so incredible. He ranks among the elite and he's doing it while getting targeted downfield. While explosive pass plays are crucial to winning games, they are very hard to pull off and can make a receiver's stats, and even a QB's stats, look worse than what they are if unsuccessful.
That's not the case for McLaurin, however. In fact, he and A.J. Brown are the only two wideouts of the top-32 to have at least a 10.0% CROE and on at least 14.0+ air yards per target. And McLaurin isn't getting targeted a top rate – his 105 targets rank 12th out of the aforementioned 32 qualifiers.
When expanding the field to Next Gen's 82 qualifying receivers field, McLaurin ranks sixth in EPA/game at +4.1, his +0.63 EPA/target is second, and he's the only wide receiver to have at least a 70% catch rate, a CROE mark of 12.0%, and at least +0.60 EPA/target while averaging at least 14.0 air yards per target.
It doesn't stop there, either. Per Pro Football Focus, McLaurin is the only wide receiver out of 50 qualifying receivers with at least 94 targets on the year to have a mark of at least 2.00 yards per route run on an average-depth-of-target of at least 14-yards. His 67.7% contested catch rate is second and the his 138.6 QB rating when targeted is No. 1 out of 50.
Make no bones about it: These are elite numbers that really stand out, especially when including the context that the majority of McLaurin's receptions are downfield and not just gimmes that can make numbers look a lot better than what they really are. There are plenty of wideouts that have inflated numbers simply due to a ton of targets or shorter throws/throws that allow them to run after the catch, but that's not the case with McLaurin. He's earned a Pro Bowl nod, and a well-deserved one at that, by making tough catches downfield.
And when it comes to the deep ball in 2024, the numbers reflect his prowess, as well.
McLaurin is elite when it comes to hauling in deep passes thanks to a special skill
There's a lot that goes into a deep pass and one of the most important components is a receiver's concentration. Not only do they have to fight off defenders and make sure their route is on point while doing so, but they also have to track the ball in the air, which is easily the hardest part of equation.
McLaurin elite at doing so and it's because he's crafted a unique skill that's allowed him to become the deep ball threat that he is, these days.
"A lot of people can catch, you know, when you're looking back, but Terry also has the ability to look directly behind him, and that's a different kind of tracking where it's coming, literally over the top of you, as opposed to turning for a normal catch," Commanders head coach Dan Quinn told reporters Wednesday. "And those different ones he really works at… You have to practice that skill…
"… That's one thing he's always been exceptional at… it was always something going against him that was in the scouting report… [When] you put it on tape and you demonstrate that skill, it gets everybody's attention."
For starters, McLaurin is the only wide receiver with at least 100 targets to have a deep ball rate of 25% or more. That's out of 30 qualifying receivers. He's fourth in EPA/target among the 35 wide receivers with at least 15 targets of 20+ air yards.
When expanding the field back out to 82, but staying in the context of deep passes, McLaurin is third in deep ball yards with 439, he's tied for the second-most touchdowns (5), and his 1.7 EPA/game is tied for fourth-best. He's been able to pull this off while being tied for the ninth-highest air yards per target (32.9).
The following compilation shows all 12 of McLaurin's touchdown receptions this season, with first being a perfect example of what Quinn is talking about when referring to the receiver's tracking ability.
This is just a sign of even bigger things in store for McLaurin
The more Daniels continues to grow, the better McLaurin's seasons will get. And it doesn't stop at Daniels, either.
The Commanders have Daniels in line for three more affordable seasons when it comes to his rookie deal. That will allow the Commanders to improve the offensive line and add more weapons in the receiving department.
That will only benefit McLaurin. If the Commanders improve the offensive line and find a true WR2 to complement McLaurin, then it's easy to see why the arrow is pointing about as high as it can.
McLaurin has always been one of the best and most underrated wideouts in the league, but now, he's on track to receive the accolades and credit he deserves. And it's going to be a lot of fun to watch.
