Biggest hits and misses for the 2024 NFL Draft class following the end of the regular season
The 2025 regular season is now over and the NFL Draft process is speeding up significantly. The all-star game circuit is about to begin with the Hula Bowl, Shrine Bowl and Senior Bowl all coming up in the next few weeks and we will learn a lot more about everyone in this class. One of […]
The 2025 regular season is now over and the NFL Draft process is speeding up significantly.
The all-star game circuit is about to begin with the Hula Bowl, Shrine Bowl and Senior Bowl all coming up in the next few weeks and we will learn a lot more about everyone in this class.
One of the things I like to do after each season is look at how my predictions looked pre-draft and how they look currently. With that being said, it's important to know that you can't completely judge a player after one year, but their trajectory can often tell you something about where they are going, but it takes three years to truly judge whether a player is a bust or not.
Looking at my rankings from the 2024 NFL Draft, I found four players that I would consider hits, two that look like big misses and one that is unconvincing.
Right: Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Selected: 125th overall
- My ranking: 53rd overall, fourth running back (2nd round grade)
There were a lot of people who got off of the Irving train when he tested poorly at the NFL Scouting Combine. What didn't make sense is his lack of perceived athleticism didn't show on tape.
He is a smaller player at 195 lbs and looks slight with his frame, but he's been a humungous asset to the Buccaneers with over 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Irving is a lesson in trusting the tape and not worrying as much about the athletic testing.
Wrong: Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots
- Selected 37th overall
- My ranking: 24th overall, fifth wide receiver (1st round grade)
Right now, this is my biggest whiff. I loved what Polk brought to the table with his feel for the game, his ability to attack vertically, and how well-rounded he was at Washington. He had just eight drops in 221 targets, but that has regressed. He was officially charted with two drops in 31 targets, but a catch percentage of just 38.7% (12/31).
Polk got in the dog house quickly with the Patriots and had just six targets after week seven. There is still time for Polk to put it together, but it doesn't look good so far.
Right: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Miami Dolphins
- Selected: 21st overall
- My ranking: Fourth overall prospect, 1st edge rusher (1st round grade)
I believe I was the highest in the industry on Chop Robinson and he has proved me right so far. He didn't start immediately for the Dolphins, but his pass rush efficiency metrics are essentially the same as Los Angeles Rams edge Jared Verse, who is the likely Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Since the beginning of November, Robinsons is third in the NFL in PFF pass rush grade (89.6), first in total pressures (27), and all six of his sacks were in that time period. He's been incredible at rushing the quarterback and looks every bit as good as any edge rusher in football, not just among rookies.
Wrong: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
- Selected: 63rd overall
- My ranking: 25th overall, eighth tackle (1st round grade)
One of the things with Suamataia is that he was young and raw. I believed he was more ready to play now than others were. Well, it's been a rough season for Suamataia in Kansas City.
Suamataia started the first two games and showed a lot of struggle. He's allowed a total of 14 pressures in 120 pass blocking reps across seven games and the Chiefs quickly benched him. That doesn't mean his career is over and he's a bust, but there is clearly a lot of work to do.
Right: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., CB, Tennessee Titans
- Selected: 147th overall
- My ranking: 41st overall, eighth cornerback (2nd round grade)
I spent a lot of the NFL Draft process telling anyone who would listen that Brownlee was legit. He was tremendous at Louisville. My scouting report was very bullish on him as a feisty player
Brownlee is a feisty player. Has zero issues getting dirty in run support, firing downhill quickly and with aggressiveness.
Doesn’t panic from the snap all the way through the rep. Stays Has the athleticism to undercut the route and force the quarterback to move away from him.
Physicality is his game. Gets up into the receivers face consistently and punches with power. Can get driven back by bigger, physical players but sustains his balance consistently.
He started in the final 14 games for the Titans and thrived for a rookie. With an offseason with the Titans, Brownlee should take a significant leap in 2025.
Right: Cam Hart, CB, Los Angeles Chargers
- Selected: 141st overall
- My ranking: 52nd overall, ninth cornerback (2nd round grade)
Just like Brownlee, I loved Cam Hart. Both players made the All Forno Team, which is my favorite prospects in the class. He had the size, speed, and athletics to thrive on the outside in the NFL. He's done that and then some for the Chargers this season. The one drawback is Hart has played in just 11 games with various injuries.
Hart isn't the only one. Fellow day-three pick Tarheeb Still has also been great, which could give the Chargers flexibility to move on from Asante Samuel Jr. if they can't re-sign him. The Chargers nailed day three of the draft this year.
We'll see: Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
- Selected: 12th overall
- My ranking: 88th overall, eighth quarterback (4th round grade)
Nix has been good this season. In fact, he was much better than I expected him to be in his career. The one caveat that I did give the Nix selection was that Sean Payton has done a really good job in maximizing quarterbacks who have limitations.
Here's the thing about Nix: the advanced metrics haven't been that kind to him and are very similar to what Russell Wilson put up in 2023.
| 2023 Russell Wilson | 2024 Bo Nix | |
|---|---|---|
EPA/Play | -0.028 (21st) | 0.023 (20th) |
Success Rate | 42.7% (24th) | 43.5% (22nd) |
CPOE | 4.4 (6th) | -0.5 (22nd) |
Air Yards/Attempt | 6.3 (27th) | 7.3 (19th) |
Will Nix end up being good? There is a good possibility, but his rookie season feels too much like that of Mac Jones in 2021 and that's not a compliment. He cratered over the next three seasons and has entered career backup territory.
Now, I have no issue admitting when I'm wrong, but Nix hasn't done enough to dispel the narratives that haunted him at Oregon: one-read quarterback, always throwing short, panics in the pocket, etc. It's still a wait-and-see approach with Nix and that's the way it should be.
