Final Predictions for Notre Dame vs Penn State in the Orange Bowl Semifinals of the College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff semifinals are finally here. And what's exciting is that in the four-team playoff model some of these final four teams would not have likely made the field just one year ago. But here we are.The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Marcus Freeman will face Penn State and James Franklin. The Ohio […]

Travis May College Football Managing Editor
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Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard and Penn State QB Drew Allar
© Matt Cashore-Imagn Images & © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff semifinals are finally here. And what's exciting is that in the four-team playoff model some of these final four teams would not have likely made the field just one year ago. But here we are.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Marcus Freeman will face Penn State and James Franklin. The Ohio State Buckeyes and Ryan Day face off against the Texas Longhorns and Steve Sarkisian.

Today, we'll dive into the first of the two playoff matchups with some final predictions for Notre Dame versus Penn State as they are set to play this Thursday at 7:30pm ET in the Orange Bowl. Which team will come away with the win, advancing to the College Football Playoff Championship?

Notre Dame ranks second in adjusted EPA per play and first in pass success rate allowed among all FBS teams on defense. However, they've shown some major vulnerability against the run, ranking outside the Top 100 in explosive run plays allowed. Penn State also boasts an elite defense, allowing even fewer yards per play than Notre Dame's Top 5 defense. Can Penn State's talented running back duo and quarterback Drew Allar score enough to beat out Riley Leonard and the Irish?

Heading into this monumental semifinal matchup between the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish, media members of A to Z Sports who cover both teams decided to weigh in, sharing their predictions for this special playoff game. The picks are in. Enjoy!

Penn State 24, Notre Dame 20

This might be the best game of the entire College Football Playoff. Penn State and Notre Dame both have elite defenses, strong rushing attacks, with similar deficiencies at wide receiver. However, Penn State's overall offensive balance mixed with a larger number of special talents headed to the NFL likely give them a slight edge.

Both edge defender Abdul Carter and tight end Tyler Warren are currently considered consensus first round picks in the 2025 NFL Draft this spring. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have been on fire in the run game, racking up nearly 400 rushing yards and four scores in the last two games alone. And on top of that, Drew Allar has developed into a potential first round talent at quarterback this year.

Notre Dame is going to have their hands full with a much more potent offense than they just faced against Georgia. Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price might find some running room on a couple plays here and there. Their stout defensive front might hold for most of the game. In the end Penn State's depth of talent and superior balanced offense wins them the day – Travis May

Notre Dame 27, Penn State 14

In a lot of ways, Penn State and Notre Dame do mirror one another. We have two inconsistent quarterbacks in Drew Allar and Riley Leonard, strong running game, and really talented yet disciplined defenders. That makes for a bit of a struggle early on. The Fighting Irish have had a little bit of a more consistent defense game to game, and have been better tested in the playoffs so far. Expect running back Jeremiyah Love to have a huge contest after avoiding a more serious injury against Georgia. – Ryan Roberts

Notre Dame 27, Penn State 23

This is a fascinating game that is between two blue bloods who don’t like each other. Long ago are the days where Penn State also used to be an independent whereas Notre Dame still is. You could make the argument that Penn State is the more talented version of Notre Dame but the Irish have the better coaching and played a tougher schedule, especially in the playoff thus far. The game is going to come down to which quarterback makes more plays and right now, that’s Riley Leonard. – Tyler Forness

Penn State 24, Notre Dame 21

I think this has the potential to be the closest game we have seen yet in the College Football Playoff, outside of the overtime game from Arizona State and Texas. Notre Dame has the elite defense with some playmakers on offense, and a quarterback who’s been playing well. Penn State has everything you could want in this game, including defensive star power with Abdul Carter, and one of the best pass catchers in the country in Tyler Warren. Ultimately, this will come down to who executes more on offense, and that has to be Penn State, in my opinion. – Justin Churchill


We'll be back with more Notre Dame & Penn State coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!