Chiefs’ unbelievable dominance in one surprising way completely destroyed the Texans’ chances in massive NFL playoff victory
The Kansas City Chiefs are heading to the AFC Championship Game for the seventh year in a row after defeating the Houston Texans on Saturday, 23-14. It wasn't always pretty–in fact, by many measures the Chiefs probably should have lost–but Patrick Mahomes and company pulled off the victory yet again.How ugly was this win? According […]
The Kansas City Chiefs are heading to the AFC Championship Game for the seventh year in a row after defeating the Houston Texans on Saturday, 23-14. It wasn't always pretty–in fact, by many measures the Chiefs probably should have lost–but Patrick Mahomes and company pulled off the victory yet again.
How ugly was this win? According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Texans became the first team to out-gain their opponent by 100+ yards (336-212), not turn the ball over, and still lose a postseason game. Previous teams were 49-0 in the playoffs. So how in the world did the Chiefs win by nine? One surprising area of complete dominance and destruction of the Texans' offensive efforts. That's how.
Expected Points Added via Eight Sacks
Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid typically get all the credit, but the Chiefs' ferocious pass rush carried the team to victory by themselves this week. Eight sacks. Consistent pressure on C.J. Stroud, seldom letting the Texans offense sustain drives (outside of the start of the 3rd quarter).
Chris Jones and his fellow defensive front members created a massive sack-generated EPA (expected points added) advantage for the Chiefs. They destroyed the Texans offensive line so badly that it potentially cost the Texans double-digit points via sacks alone. But what does that mean? And How?
For those unfamiliar with Expected Points Added, the concept is very simple. Based on field position, down and distance, and time remaining every single drive has an expected point value. Each individual play's outcome impacts the expected points on each drive in a positive or negative way. And sacks are some of the most impactful type of plays imaginable when it comes to EPA.
In fact, on NFL average, sacks are worth -1.5 EPA each when an offense takes one. With eight sacks against the Texans on Saturday, that means in theory the Chiefs took away somewhere around 12 points via their sacks alone. It's not quite that simple or exact because each sack is unique given the yards lost and situation, but if anything the Chiefs' sacks were worth more on average against the Texans. [Editor's Note: Precise EPA data will be available in the days to come, but as of this writing it is not.]
Take for example George Karlaftis' sack of Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud on 4th & 10 early in the fourth quarter. This wasn't exactly your standard 1.5-point EPA swing. The play ended the Texans' possession completely, dropping the expected points on the drive to zero. Not only that, the 16 yards lost completely flipped the field, putting the Chiefs offense in much better position to score. The offense failed to capitalize, but the damage done on this single play was monumental.
Then again to close the game out George Karlaftis, the clear MVP of the game, sacked Stroud again on 3rd & 10 with the Texans pressing to score on the Chiefs 13-yard line. Obviously not the standard baseline sack. It was game-changing, and very likely worth a multiple-point shift in expected points for the drive given the circumstances.
The Chiefs' eight sacks were the second most in a single postseason game in NFL history, trailing on the Houston Oilers' performance back in the Divisional Round of the playoffs back in 1993. It doesn't take an extensive understanding of EPA per play to realize how rare that type of performance is, or just how impactful that can be on completely flipping a game.
It will be interesting to see just how impactful the EPA advantage was when it came to the Chiefs' sacks in the coming days. It's very likely that the pass rush gave the Chiefs a two-touchdown edge in terms of implied points added. That's a wild, perhaps completely unprecedented performance in the history of the NFL. If the Chiefs keep this kind of pass rush up down the stretch it's going to be near impossible for anyone to beat them.
We'll be back with more Kansas City Chiefs coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
