Experts hit Cowboys Nation with bucket of cold water after two consecutive wins ahead of Week 14
The Dallas Cowboys have won two in a row which inevitably means the mood has changed around a fanbase that had reached a low point as the team tumbled down all the way to a 3-7 record just a couple of weeks ago. At that point, as losses kept stacking up, some even questioned if the […]
The Dallas Cowboys have won two in a row which inevitably means the mood has changed around a fanbase that had reached a low point as the team tumbled down all the way to a 3-7 record just a couple of weeks ago.
At that point, as losses kept stacking up, some even questioned if the Cowboys would win another game even though they had the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers left on the schedule. But in the league, winning fixes everything and after just a couple of consecutive wins, the tone has changed.
Suddenly, beating the Bengals and Panthers doesn't seem impossible and even stealing one more win against the Bucs, Eagles, and Commanders can come off as a longshot, but a possibility nevertheless.
Well, to keep everyone's feelings in check, oddsmakers have hit Cowboys Nation with a bucket of cold water by releasing next week's betting line for the Monday Night Football clash between Dallas and the Cincinnati Bengals (Which will happen in a "The Simpsons" setting, too!).
The Bengals are six-point favorites on the road as they'll travel to AT&T Stadium next week. That means they'd be close to a nine-point favorite if the game was played in Cincinnati.
It's a strong stance from the betting market and one that might come off as a surprise considering the Bengals have been bad enough to have a worse record than the Cowboys even though they haven't lost Joe Burrow like Dallas did Dak Prescott.
Now granted, oddsmakers are far, far, far from perfect. There's only so much you can predict about a football game so this doesn't mean the Cowboys have no shot at winning. But the oddsmakers are likely on to something here.
After all, the Bengals offense has been close to elite. They rank seventh in EPA/play and are second in dropback success rate, per RBSDM. If only they were winning games, Burrow would likely be an MVP favorite.
So what's kept them from winning ballgames? A porous defense that ranks 30th in EPA/play and is a bottom five unit both against the run and the pass. That means Cooper Rush and company will have a shot at moving the ball on the Bengals next week.
However, they'll have to be ready to match the output from a Burrow-led offense that has averaged 28 points per game and 33 per game in their last three games. Think about it this way: The Bengals have had four losses in games in which they score 33+ points. Tom Brady also had four such losses… in his entire career (333 starts).
It should be an intriguing game to watch with some matchups that will exploit the other's weaknesses (think Micah Parsons rushing a porous offensive line and Ja'Marr Chase facing man coverage). But Cowboys Nation should likely take a hint and tame its expectations.
