Brian Callahan won't admit the biggest reason for optimism surrounding the Titans offensive growth and potential late-season explosion
You can probably kiss a Titans top-10 draft pick goodbye.
Things are finally clicking for the Tennessee Titans on offense, and it's been even more impressive than you think.
Fans of the Titans have seen their team finally show consistent life on offense in November with the reemergence of Will Levis. And despite being 1-2 in their past three games, the offensive production has been increasingly promising.
Two Months of Offensive Growth
Really, I would argue that those who have truly been paying attention know that the Titans have started to come to life on offense since they returned from their Week 5 bye. Week 6 was the baseline, a game in which Will Levis was playing hurt and it cost them against the division rival Colts.
In Week 7, they played at a Bills team 10x better than them. And yet, Mason Rudolph demonstrating some proof of concept had them leading 10-7 at halftime before the better team eventually pulled away.
In Week 8, they played at a Lions team 100x better than them. And yet, a similar story. Rudolph and the offense showed they could move the ball efficiently, hanging 416 yards at a 5.9ypp clip. That dog will hunt in the NFL…
In Week 9, they finally broke through for their 2nd win against the Patriots. It was another day of 400+ yards of offense with Mason Rudolph.
In Week 10, Will Levis returned to play at a boa constrictor-Chargers team. Despite having just eight real drives, Levis played his best game of the year and threw two touchdowns. More progress.
In Week 11, Levis arguably outdid himself from the previous week against the Vikings. It was another performance you couldn't appreciate by reading the box score alone. Levis was patient, efficient, and effective. Extenuating officiating circumstances kept this one from being even more impressive than it could've been. Fans left this loss unanimously (cautiously) optimistic about Levis after back-to-back strong games.
And then in Week 12, The Titans offensive progress broke through in a massive way. They scored 32 points in their road win over the division-leading Texans, and Levis was a tough pick-6 away from looking fantastic. He had a 123.3 passer rating in what was his third consecutive week of out-doing himself.
All-told, the return of Levis and his delightful turnaround from a nightmarish first month of the season has folks reasonably focused on the past 3 weeks. But the foundation of a strong offense has been in the works for nearly two months now for those with eyes to see it.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Titans are 6th in rush yards and T4th in explosive plays rushing. They're 8th in pass yards and 13th in yds/att. They're 10th in first downs gained and 20th in total scoring. Every one of these categories has seen a massive uptick from their standing pre-bye. They're a completely different team than they were 2 months ago.
Growing Through Brutal Conditions
Now, what the Titans have done offensively since their bye is reason enough for optimism. But when you look at who exactly they've played during this stretch, it's made even more impressive.
Since Levis returned, the Titans have played inarguably their best football of the year against three consecutive top-5ish offenses. Two of those games were on the road.
As you can see in the chart below, the Chargers, Vikings, and Texans are all top-6 defenses in EPA/play allowed. They're also top-5 in EPA/pass, and they are literally the three best defenses in the entire league in success rate allowed.
How they managed to look so competent, and at times truly good, against such a gauntlet, I have no idea.
We asked Head Coach Brian Callahan about the brutal stretch of defenses they've just finished playing on Wednesday, and he laughed off the idea that he's put much thought into how things are about to lighten up:
"Yeah, I don't look at it that way. I know you guys do, I don't. We got good defenses every week" Callahan said, clearly lying. In his defense, as the head coach, you have to say this. But let's be real: he looks at it this way all the time.
Callahan continued, "everybody's got players. Everybody gets paid. There's good coaches everywhere. So I don't necessarily look at it like that. I do know we've played some really stout, difficult schemes over the last handful of weeks with really good players and I think we've done a lot of positive things. Obviously, we haven't won enough for those games, but the growth of the offense versus some difficult schemes and some good players has been positive. And I think that's where I take some of my positivity and optimism from, is that we have played good stretches of football against good defenses and that's a good thing for us in our offensive progression and we're going have to continue to do that. Again, still six weeks to play, a lot of things out there to play for still and we got to find a way to win some more games."
An Explosive Home-Stretch?
While Callahan had to give the responsible coach-speak answer, he knows that the Titans schedule of opposing defenses is about to go from the hardest stretch in the league to potentially the easiest.
Go back and look at the upcoming games on that chart. Starting this weekend, the Titans embark on a 5-game stretch in which they play the 14th, 21st, 28th, and 32nd (twice!) defenses by EPA/play. Look at the ranks in the Success Rate and EPA/pass columns as well. You cannot ask for a softer stretch of defenses than this in the NFL.
Full disclosure, this is next one is a fantasy football chart. So take it with a big grain of salt in this discussion about real football. But the difference is stark when you look at the difficultly of schedule the Titans QBs have faced so far, and the difficulty of their remaining opponents: from the 5th hardest to the #1 easiest.
The Titans offense has no excuses not to take their weeks of continued growth and keep the ball rolling in a big way against the Commanders, Bengals, Colts and Jaguars. They aren't all walkover teams, in fact a couple of these offenses are very daunting. But the defensive resistance they offer is minimal. Levis and company should continue to cook, and it will likely result in kissing a top-10 pick in the 2025 draft goodbye.
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