Even after a painful 32-31 loss at Oregon the last time we saw them, the Ohio State Buckeyes are projected to be a force in the College Football Playoff. Our latest CFP projections have moved the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten champion spot, but the Buckeyes can benefit from the extended format that sees 12 teams competing.

In this week's latest update, Ohio State would play in the First Four Matchups against MWC Champion, Boise State. That means a head-to-head battle with Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty.

Ohio State College Football Playoff Projections

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Our data-driven model has the Buckeyes finishing in the top at-large spot, ranking fifth. Oregon would win the Big Ten in this scenario, leaving the Buckeyes to play in the first round. Boise State, projected to go 11-2, would be a tough foe.

AtoZ Sports College Football Managing Editor Travis May had this to say about the matchup:

"Ohio State handles Boise State despite another impressive performance from Ashton Jeanty."

Boise State could very well finish the season 12-1 with their only loss coming to Oregon in what was a competitive game. Ashton Jeanty could be on the verge of breaking Barry Sanders' college football single season records that have held for 40 years coming into this game. He'll give his everything, but against an Ohio State team with 20 potential draft picks on it Boise State will be outmatched.

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May's analysis matches much of what we saw play out when Oregon narrowly defeated Jeanty and Boise State. As well as the Broncos produced on offense, they could not get the stops needed to win. Their pulverizing run game is effective, but Ohio State's size and veteran leadership would enable them to get enough stops on lesser athletes who aren't Jeanty.

That said, Boise would go all-out and keep it interesting. Barring a philosophical change from Ohio State head coach Ryan Day, the Buckeyes would play it straight, making this a closer outcome than what would be comfortable. 

A win against Boise State would pit OSU against Iowa State, and then likely Oregon before reaching the College Football Playoff Final.