Packers' big investment is not paying off as they wanted, and pressure builds after slow start
When the Green Bay Packers gave Rashan Gary a four-year, $96 million extension in October, nobody could complain. It was a relatively fair deal, well below the top of the edge market, and there has always been a sense that Gary had that elite ceiling, that his numbers didn't tell the whole story of his […]
When the Green Bay Packers gave Rashan Gary a four-year, $96 million extension in October, nobody could complain. It was a relatively fair deal, well below the top of the edge market, and there has always been a sense that Gary had that elite ceiling, that his numbers didn't tell the whole story of his play.
While that was a fair perception, at some point the player has to produce. And Gary simply has not been what the Packers expect and need — especially over the first four games of this season, but it's been an issue since last season.
Rashan Gary, a first-round pick in 2019, didn't have a sack in 12 of his last 16 games in the NFL. Since he extended his deal, Gary has played 14 regular season games. It's 5.5 sacks, and three of them in the same game — that outstanding, and probably outlier, performance against the Detroit Lion on Thanksgiving.
But until last year, you could always point out that Rashan Gary was generating pressure at a high rate, even though the sack numbers wouldn't indicate that — after all, he hasn't had a double digit-sack season in the league.
Beyond sacks
This year, the problem doesn't stop with the lack of sacks. Gary is only 59th among 110 qualifying edges, with six total pressures. He's tied with Preston Smith on the Packers — tied for third on the team, behind Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark. He would need 18 pressures to be in the top 10, which is probably what the Packers expect from him.
San Francisco 49ers' defensive end Nick Bosa had seven pressures only against the New England Patriots, more than Gary had in the first four games of the season. Against the Minnesota Vikings, he couldn't beat tight ends 1-on-1 — ok, Josh Oliver is a good blocking tight end, but he is still not an offensive tackle.
You could argue that Jeff Hafley's scheme isn't helping, that he was forced to set the edge against mobile quarterbacks in Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson. But the efficiency numbers are not there either.
He is 103rd/110 in PFF pass rush grade (52.0), the worst among the Packers' four edge rushers (who are playing the same scheme, with similar responsibilities), and 104th/110 in win rate (3%).
The win rate is particularly troubling. The 3% number is down from 16% in 2023, which was down from 17.3% in 2022.
Process vs results
In today's NFL, it's imperative to generate results while in the rookie contract. Obviously, getting a really good edge defender is a strong outcome, but Gary has barely generated any surplus value for Green Bay.
Even though he was a first-round pick in 2019, he wasn't a preferred starter until year 4 — he only started in year 3 because Za'Darius Smith got hurt. And then, in the middle of his first season as a preferred starter, it was already time to extend him.
The Packers are following the same trend with Lukas Van Ness.
While the process conversation is important, that decision has already been made. The Packers drafted Rashan Gary, then paid him like a top defensive player.
Now, it's time for him to make the Packers' decision-makers look smart. Green Bay badly needs it.
The Packers can’t wait to make a necessary move at key spot on the roster
Brayden Narveson missed two field goals against the Vikings
