Oregon Ducks' three new emerging Big Ten rivals could keep them out of the 12-Team College Football Playoff

It's only three weeks into the college football season, but things are already starting to loosely take shape in the race for the new 12-team College Football Playoffs bracket. There are a ton of moving parts in this new playoff picture, and it gets even more complicated for fans of the Oregon Ducks with the […]

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Dillon Gabriel
© Abigail Dollins/Statesman Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It's only three weeks into the college football season, but things are already starting to loosely take shape in the race for the new 12-team College Football Playoffs bracket.

There are a ton of moving parts in this new playoff picture, and it gets even more complicated for fans of the Oregon Ducks with the team playing in a new conference.

Every fanbase needs rivalries to cling to. Let's dive into three teams that naturally fit that bill for the Ducks, giving fans three teams to pay attention to (and potentially root against).


Ohio State Buckeyes

This is the easy one. Entering the season, the Ducks were the No. 3 team in the country, and Ohio State was No. 2. Through the first couple weeks, the Ducks didn't live up to the billing, while the Buckeyes have. Ohio State currently finds themselves at No. 3 in the latest AP Poll, while the Ducks have slid to No. 9, despite being 3-0.

The easiest path for the Ducks is this – win. In this new playoff format, the Conference Champions from the Power Four Conferences (Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and ACC) will all go into the CFP, as will the best team from the Group of Five. That accounts for five of the 12 spots in the CFP, with the other seven teams being selected as an at-large big by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.

For Oregon, you have a date with Ohio State in Eugene on October 12, which Ducks fans all likely have marked on their calendars. Beat the Buckeyes, win the Big Ten Championship game, and you're in. Simple, but far from easy.


Penn State Nittany Lions

Let's say Oregon wins their next two games against UCLA and Michigan State as they start up conference play, having them as an undefeated 5-0 squad when they match up with the Buckeyes. What happens if that game doesn't go according to plan? If Oregon drops a game to Ohio State, suddenly it gets a little more complicated.

The two best teams from the Big Ten Conference will play in the Big Ten Championship Game. If Oregon loses to Ohio State, they're going to be in a tough fight for that final spot, and it could come down to Penn State. The two teams don't play each other this year, and have very similar remaining schedules in terms of competition level.

Left on their schedule this year, Penn State has No. 24 Illinois, No. 11 USC, and No. 3 Ohio State.

Oregon shares Illinois and Ohio State as opponents, and has a matchup with No. 18 Michigan in Ann Arbor. The shared opponents are potentially a very big deal.

From the Big Ten website, if two teams are tied in the Big Ten standings (conference games only), the following steps will be taken until a determination is made (condensed version below with full version listed here):

  1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
  2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
  3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
  4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
  5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
  6. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

Oregon and Penn State don't play each other, so if the two teams finish the year with the same conference record, the second tie breaker is comparing their record against common conference opponents. If Penn State were to beat Ohio State, and Oregon were to lose to them, Oregon would be out.

Penn State could become a very familiar foe, and one that Oregon fans should embrace – especially with a trip to Penn State on the schedule for next season.


Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska is an old classic program that was a powerhouse of the 1990s, winning three national championships in a four year stretch. Since then, the success has been few and far between.

The Cornhuskers are back, though, starting their season 3-0 while being led by true freshman phenom quarterback Dylan Raiola, who clearly really, really likes Patrick Mahomes.

Impersonations aside, Raiola has a cannon for an arm, the team is undefeated early including a big win over Colorado, and their quarterback is completing 73.8% of hiss passes for 670 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. The Cornhuskers are currently ranked No. 22 in the country, but don't be surprised to see them continue to climb.

Follow along all year for more Oregon Ducks coverage on A to Z Sports. You can find me on X @JonHelmkamp, as well as follow our main page @AtoZSportsNFL for all the latest news.