Steelers' chances of shocking the world just got drastically better
No, getting into the playoffs isn't easy for the Pittsburgh Steelers the way things stand right now. In fact, it's highly unlikely. FiveThirtyEight calculates the team has a 3% probability to be playing past Week 18. But that's why we watch sports in the first place, isn't it? Anything can happen in the NFL. Truth be […]
No, getting into the playoffs isn't easy for the Pittsburgh Steelers the way things stand right now. In fact, it's highly unlikely. FiveThirtyEight calculates the team has a 3% probability to be playing past Week 18.
But that's why we watch sports in the first place, isn't it? Anything can happen in the NFL.
Truth be told, I wouldn't even be writing this article if it weren't for recent news around the league. In fact, I was avoiding the conversation as much as possible because the mathematical possibilities behind the whole thing just didn't cut it for me.
I made a conscious decision to just enjoy the Kenny Pickett experience instead. And it's been fun.
But things have changed as unfortunate news hit the Miami Dolphins on Wednesday when head coach Mike McDaniel confirmed Tua Tagovailoa suffered his third concussion of the year. That means the Dolphins will be without Tua for Week 17 versus the New England Patriots and missing Week 18 is also a possibility.
That changes everything for Pittsburgh.
While the news suck because you don't want to see any player suffer a concussion let alone his third of the season and we should in no way celebrate it, the Steelers significantly benefit from the Dolphins having to play a backup for the last two weeks of the season.
Among the many combinations that the Steelers need in order to make it to the playoffs, the Dolphins losing out arguably was the toughest of all.
Here's what the Steelers need to make it to the playoffs
If we exclude any combination that involve ties, there's only one way the Steelers get in. Just one. Here it goes:
- Steelers win out (@ BAL, vs CLE)
- Dolphins lose out (@ NE, vs NYJ)
- Jets lose @ SEA (Week 17)
- Patriots lose @ BUF (Week 18)
Listen, rooting for such extended combos in the NFL is mostly wishful thinking. But if you isolate things game by game, this is astonishingly possible.
The Steelers are 4-1 in their last five. They're legitimately a good football team right now.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins will be playing Teddy Bridgewater at QB and have already shown weaknesses even with Tua. Jets vs Seahawks is a competitive game with the 12th man supporting Pro Bowler Geno Smith. And we all remember how things went for the Patriots the last time they went to Buffalo.
The next two weeks have to be immaculate. But the Steelers have a shot.
And odds that feel slightly better than 3%.
Featured image via Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports