Betting the Cowboys: Odds, trends, and pick vs NY Giants

The Dallas Cowboys are heavy favorites against the New York Giants this Sunday. Even though the offense is clearly in a slump, the betting markets still look at the Cowboys as the clearly superior team. Interestingly enough, the defense might be the most trustworthy unit of the team instead of the offense. But are the […]

Mauricio Rodriguez — Dallas Cowboys News Writer
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Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants
Oct 10, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) runs the ball against the New York Giants in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys are heavy favorites against the New York Giants this Sunday. Even though the offense is clearly in a slump, the betting markets still look at the Cowboys as the clearly superior team. Interestingly enough, the defense might be the most trustworthy unit of the team instead of the offense.

But are the Cowboys to trust with a big spread? Let's find out.

The odds

  • Spread: Dallas Cowboys -11 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -550 / New York Giants +400
  • Total: 44.5

Public betting: Cowboys getting usual backing

The Dallas Cowboys check all of the boxes to be backed by the betting public this weekend: Being the Cowboys, being a heavy favorite, facing a team that's 4-9, and a strong 5-2 record on the road.

That's why they're fielding 63% of the bets, according to Action Network. There hasn't been any significant line action, though.

Trends

  • Cowboys are 10-3 against the spread (ATS)!
  • Under is 4-0 in Cowboys' last 4 road games.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Cowboys' last 7 games.
  • Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the NFC East.
  • Under is 10-1-1 in Giants' last 12 home games.

The pick: Backing one of the healthiest Dallas Cowboys teams of the season

Before we start overthinking this divisional matchup, let's start by taking a quick look at where each team ranks in DVOA (Football Outsiders' efficiency stat).

Cowboys: 3rd overall, 8th offense, 3rd defense

Giants: 28th overall, 27th offense, 18th defense

The difference between both teams' rankings should come as no surprise given the Cowboys are 9-4 while the Giants are 4-9. But that difference might be even more noticeable on Sunday because of where teams stand in terms of health.

SIC Score is a measure of health developed by former San Diego Chargers doctor David Chao to discover certain advantages. The Cowboys vs Giants game is a clear example of it.

According to the site, the Dallas Cowboys will be the healthiest team in the NFL on Sunday (even without Tyron Smith in the lineup). On the other hand, the Giants will be the least healthy.

That and the fact that I fully expect the Cowboys to win the battle in the trenches with the fourth-best pressure rate in the NFL is enough to convince me to lay the points against Mike Glennon.

This is both backing the Cowboys and fading the Giants, who keep rotating starting offensive linemen in various spots of their lineup including right tackle.

The bet: Dallas Cowboys -11 (-110)

Season bets: 7-6

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

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