Why is Tanner Jeannot underperforming for the Predators this season?
Last season, Tanner Jeannot was nothing short of a rookie sensation for the Nashville Predators. He played in all but one regular season game, putting up an impressive 24 goals and 17 assists. What made his performance all the more impressive was his deployment. Jeannot played on a defensively-minded third line opposite Yakov Trenin and […]
Last season, Tanner Jeannot was nothing short of a rookie sensation for the Nashville Predators. He played in all but one regular season game, putting up an impressive 24 goals and 17 assists. What made his performance all the more impressive was his deployment. Jeannot played on a defensively-minded third line opposite Yakov Trenin and centered by Colton Sissons. The line was affectionately known as the "Herd" line and was known for aggressive physical play. The line took a lot of face-offs in the defensive zone. Even more, Jeannot had very limited power play time and also managed to rack up 130 minutes in penalties. It was an exciting year for Predators fans who were seeing the closest thing to Jordin Tootoo in quite awhile. Jordin Tootoo himself even had the chance to weigh in on Jeannot's style of play during the Stadium Series:
The result of last season saw Jeannot become a fan favorite in Nashville, but along with the high praise came high expectations. Thus far, however, Jeannot's results have not met those expectations. 32 games into the season, Jeannot has scored just 3 goals and 4 assists. In my last article, I discussed the advanced statistic of individual expected goals (ixG). This statistic helps explain a lot of what's going on with Jeannot offensively. Last season, Jeannot outperformed expectations scoring 24 goals on 16.17 expected goals. This season, Jeannot sits at 6.23 expected goals, but has just 3 goals to show for it. In short, Jeannot is scoring at about half the rate he's expected to.
Jeannot's first 15 games with the Predators in 2020-21 are also worth looking at. Jeannot scored 5 goals during that time period on just over 2 expected goals.
What's different for Jeannot this season?
For one thing, Jeannot's line mates have been incredibly inconsistent. Last season, the Predators lines were very predictable. Along with that, the expectations for Jeannot's line were explicitly clear–play strong defensively, forecheck aggressively, and create chaos in the offensive zone. With the line blender in hyper mode this season, Jeannot's line, and therefore responsibilities and expectations, changes on a nightly basis.
But there's something else. Jeannot's shooting percentage (the number of shots that result in goals versus those that don't) has dropped dramatically. Last season he had a shooting percentage of 19.35; this season, he only converts 5.88% of his shots. Regression, which I've written about ad nauseam, is partly to blame, but there's something else.
Shot location
Jeannot was known last season as a net-front menace, creating chaos by taking the goalies eyes away and expertly deflecting and redirecting shots into the net behind the bewildered goaltender. Take a look at this shot map from Micah Blake McCurdy:
It's easy to see where Jeannot spent most of his time, but it's also easy to see where he scored his goals–between the circles, right in front of the net. Compare last season to this season:
See the difference? Jeannot isn't parked in front of the net like he was last season. He still has a presence in front of the net, but he's certainly not there as much as he was last season. The question we're left with is why not? He seems to be spread out over the ice a bit more than last season, that can be attributed to the changing demands of the different lines he's playing with. Forcing Jeannot to take shots from farther away is proving to be a good way to neutralize him as an offensive threat. When combined with his much lower shooting percentage, regression is hitting Tanner Jeannot harder than anyone else on the team. And, the Nashville Predators are a team that's getting hit by regression pretty hard already.
Is there a way to fix it? Perhaps. Some regularity for Jeannot with a line that allows him to get to the net-front and cause chaos would probably help. Line mates that are willing to take good shots instead of perfect shots would give Jeannot more opportunities for deflections and redirects. And, sure, a lot of those types of goals can be chalked up to luck, but the Predator are a whole lot luckier when Jeannot is in front of the goal.
-featured image via Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports-
