Tennessee Titans: The Best Modern-Day Comparison for Marcus Mariota
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Since the day that GM Jon Robinson traded for quarterback Ryan Tannehill this March, the career comparisons between he and starter Marcus Mariota have been constant. And, in some aspects, there are statistical and career trajectory similarities that make it a reasonable conclusion to draw. But Tannehill is not the best professional parallel […]
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Since the day that GM Jon Robinson traded for quarterback Ryan Tannehill this March, the career comparisons between he and starter Marcus Mariota have been constant. And, in some aspects, there are statistical and career trajectory similarities that make it a reasonable conclusion to draw.
But Tannehill is not the best professional parallel for the Tennessee Titans quarterback. A closer look reveals that the better comp is Washington's Alex Smith.
Consider: a mild-mannered quarterback that does not draw attention to himself, struggled early in his career with injuries and consistency and possesses just enough talent and athleticism to keep teams guessing about whether they are actually good enough to sustain a career as a starter in the NFL.
Sound familiar?
The narratives connecting Mariota and Smith are strong. Can they remain healthy long enough to maintain a consistent level of play? Are they good enough to be the faces of franchises or even long-term NFL starters? Are we being fooled by the occasional flashes of above-average ability and athleticism that may only be flashes and not something more sustainable?
Smith has never met the lofty expectations that came with his draft position as the first overall pick in 2005 by the San Francisco 49ers. Removing recency bias would reveal that the pre-Kansas City/Andy Reid version of Smith might have been worse, more inconsistent and more injury-plagued than the roller coaster that has been Mariota's career.
Traded from KC to Washington before the 2018 season and set not to play at all in 2019 due to a gruesome leg injury, Smith boasts a 94-66-1 record (.574) as a starter, with a 62.4% completion rate, an average of 6.9 yards gained per pass attempt and a percentage of touchdowns thrown when attempting to pass rate of 3.9 over the course of his career. He had not thrown for more than 18 scores in a season prior to being traded to the Chiefs and dealt with everything from concussions to shoulder issues for the bulk of his seven years with the Niners. San Francisco was dreadful for the bulk of Smith's career, he missed the entirety of the 2008 campaign and he started all 16 regular season games only three times.
In one of those three seasons, though, Smith piloted San Francisco to a 13-3 record and a division title before getting bounced by Eli Manning and the eventual 2011-12 Super Bowl-winning New York Giants in the NFC Championship.
The sample size for Mariota is smaller but arguably better since being drafted by Tennessee with the second overall pick 10 years after Smith was drafted. The win-loss record has yet to break .500 (27-28) but the career 4.3 passing touchdown percentage does stand out. Mariota's availability is constantly called into question has made one more start than Jameis Winston, one fewer than Ben Roethlisberger and the same number as Aaron Rodgers since becoming a pro in 2015, per The Athletic's Mike Sando.
San Francisco spent seven years trying to get a full evaluation of Smith and ultimately decided it would be better to trade him to Kansas City. Andy Reid got the best out of Smith during his five-year stay there and then bet on a future MVP in Pat Mahomes, shipping Smith to Washington. The veteran got his latest team to a record of 6-4 before his body failed him yet again and there is a strong chance he never returns to form.
Could this happen to Mariota as the Titans try and figure out what the hell to do with him? We will not know until season's end but look no further than Alex Smith's career for a precedent.
Featured Image: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports.
