ESPN's metrics show a huge change in Tennessee Vols' College Football Playoff odds

The Tennessee Vols aren't one of the favorites to reach the College Football Playoff this season. But they're in the conversation, which is something that no one expected to happen this soon after the program seemingly hit rock bottom in early 2021 (when then head coach Jeremy Pruitt was fired in the wake of an […]

Zach Ragan — Tennessee Volunteers News Writer
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The Tennessee Vols aren't one of the favorites to reach the College Football Playoff this season.

But they're in the conversation, which is something that no one expected to happen this soon after the program seemingly hit rock bottom in early 2021 (when then head coach Jeremy Pruitt was fired in the wake of an NCAA recruiting investigation).

The Vols are off to a 4-0 start and they beat Florida for only the fifth time since the turn of the century. As a result, Tennessee's playoff odds have risen significantly.

Sep 17, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Squirrel White (10) returns a punt during the second half against the Akron Zips at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 17, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Squirrel White (10) returns a punt during the second half against the Akron Zips at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports

According to ESPN's metrics, the Vols had a 0.1 percent chance of reaching the playoff before the start of the season.

Thansk to their 4-0 start, ESPN's metrics now say that Tennessee has a 7 percent chance of making the playoff.

As a result of UT's odds rising, Georgia's chances of making the playoff have slipped from 74 percent in the preseason to 64 percent currently.

Additionally, Tennessee's odds of winning the SEC have gone from 2 percent in the preseason to 7 percent while Georgia's odds have gone from 41 percent to 38 percent.

From ESPN:

Georgia's relative struggles have opened the door a smidgen for an SEC East usurper, and with Kentucky's Week 5 loss to Ole Miss, Tennessee is now the most likely team to take advantage. Josh Heupel's Volunteers were idle this week after a pair of MAC blowouts (wins by a combined 122-16 against Ball State and Akron) and tight wins over Pitt and Florida. They have their own rugged upcoming stretch — home games against Alabama and Kentucky, road games against LSU and Georgia over the next five weeks — so we'll know whether they're up to the task soon.

There's still two-thirds of the season left to play, but the Vols are certainly in a great position to shock some folks. A lot of things have to go right for Tennessee, but the Vols might be the team best positioned to surprisingly crash the playoff.

Featured image via Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

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