Here's what Tennessee needs to happen to guarantee a spot in College Football Playoff
The Tennessee Vols' first week as the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings didn't go very well. Tennessee lost 27-13 to Georgia in Athens in a game that was never really close. As a result, the Vols fell to No. 5 in the latest AP Top 25 poll. There's a good chance […]
The Tennessee Vols' first week as the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings didn't go very well.
Tennessee lost 27-13 to Georgia in Athens in a game that was never really close.
As a result, the Vols fell to No. 5 in the latest AP Top 25 poll. There's a good chance they'll be No. 5 in the updated College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday (though it's possible they don't drop past No. 4…it just depends on the committee).
Ultimately, the only rankings that matter are the final ones. But with just three weeks remaining in the regular season, we have a pretty good idea of what scenarios would be good for Tennessee and which scenarios would be bad.
Here's what Tennessee needs to happen to guarantee they're one of the four teams in the College Football Playoff:
- Georgia needs to win out and win the SEC Championship. Tennessee doesn't need LSU or Ole Miss beating Georgia in Atlanta. Ole Miss, specifically, would be disastrous for the Vols. A one-loss Ole Miss team that wins the SEC Championship would keep Tennessee out of the playoff (UGA, like last season, would get in if their only loss is in the SEC Championship game).
- TCU needs to lose a game. The playoff rankings will tell us this week if the committee likes undefeated TCU better than a one-loss Tennessee. TCU has four wins over ranked teams, though only one of those teams (Kansas State) is currently ranked. The Vols, meanwhile, have wins over two teams currently in the top 10 (LSU and Alabama).
- Oregon needs to lose a game. The Ducks are currently 8-1 and should be below the Vols in the CFP rankings this week. Oregon and Tennessee have both lost to Georgia this season. I think Tennessee would get in over a one-loss Oregon team, but if the Ducks suffer another loss, it will eliminate any possibility of them jumping the Vols.
- Michigan and Ohio State play each other so one of them will have a loss. A one-loss Tennessee team should get in over a one-loss B1G team. But again, you never know. The Vols really need Michigan or Ohio State to lose a game before the two teams play each other in the season finale. An Illinois win over Michigan combined with the Wolverines losing to the Buckeyes would be ideal for UT.
- USC or UCLA needs an extra loss. Those two teams each have one loss and they play each other so one will definitely be eliminated. I don't think either of them with one loss would jump Tennessee. But both having two losses would eliminate any worry there. UCLA losing to USC and then USC losing to Notre Dame would be ideal.
I'm not saying all of those scenarios HAVE to happen for Tennessee to make the playoff. But if all of those above scenarios happen, it will essentially guarantee the Vols' spot.
The worst thing that can happen to Tennessee would be Ole Miss winning out and beating Georgia and TCU finishing the season undefeated. If that happens and Ohio State or Michigan runs the table, the Vols will be playing in the Sugar Bowl instead of the playoff.
There's a lot of football left to be played. And I think the Vols are in really good shape to make the playoff. Obviously nothing is guaranteed at this point, but I think Tennessee is in the best shape of all the one-loss teams.
The Volunteers just have to hope the committee agrees.
Featured image via Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
