The game has lost a lot of importance as the Tennessee Titans are set to rest a bunch of starters against the Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, though America's Team is a longshot to win the NFC East, the team might still be interested to rest some key starters on a short week.

The circumstances have made for a difficult betting spread and total to figure out. What's the best bet to make on this one?

Let's dive in.

This season we're 12-3 (!!!) betting Cowboys' games in this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys. 

Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That's a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.

The odds

• Spread: Dallas Cowboys -12.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -625 / Tennessee Titans +470
• Total: 40

The public is all-in on the Cowboys

Per Action Network, 62% of the bets are on the Cowboys.

The betting spread opened at around 9.5 but moved quickly as soon as the Titans started ruling out enough players to make this look like a preseason game. The Cowboys struggled against the Houston Texans when they entered the game as 18-point favorites.

Trends

• The Titans are 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.
• Under is 10-2 in the Titans' last 12 home games.
• Over is 5-0 in the Cowboys' last five games overall.

The pick: Cowboys should out-class the Titans

I understand the Cowboys haven't fully earned the trust of the fanbase. However, they're an 11-win team! They rank fourth in overall DVOA and remain one of the very best teams in the entire NFL.

Let's take a deeper dive into the list of players that are ruled out or are designated as doubtful for tonight's game:

Ruled OUT for the #Titans vs Cowboys:

QB Ryan Tannehill
DL Jeffery Simmons
T Nicholas Petit-Frere
S Amani Hooker
OLB Bud Dupree
LB Zach Cunningham
LB Dylan Cole
DB Josh Thompson

DOUBTFUL:
RB Derrick Henry
CB Kristian Fulton
OLB Denico Autry

— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) December 28, 2022

We're talking about almost 10 starters there, y'all.

Malik Willis is an exciting prospect but he's not NFL-ready as a passer just yet as the original plan was for him to be a long-term play for the Titans. The Cowboys defense might be shaky right now but they're still taking the ball away.

Just last Saturday, the Cowboys forced four turnovers, and while some were lucky plays, defensive backs DaRon Bland and Jayron Kearse made great plays on the ball and should get some opportunities versus Willis.

I expect this one to get as ugly as fans expected the Texans game to get (we took Texans +18 that week in this series).

The bet: COWBOYS -12.5

Season bets: 12-3

Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%) 

Odds via Covers

Featured image via Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports