The Dallas Cowboys have QB1 back in the lineup. All expectations change for this team as Dak Prescott opens up several doors on offense but rust is always a concern, especially after being away for five weeks.

Will the Cowboys' quarterback be game ready? And more importantly, will the defense survive such a sound running game from the Lions? We'll find out.

This season we're 5-1 betting Cowboys' games in this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys. 

Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That's a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.

The odds

• Spread: Dallas Cowboys -6.5
• Moneyline: Detroit Lions +230 / Dallas Cowboys -275
• Total: 49

The public likes Dan Campbell

Despite the Cowboys being America's Team, the Lions are fielding more bets on this one. But it's not a huge edge. Per Action Network, Detroit is fielding 48% of the bets. That's probably one of the reasons why the betting spread has moved from the key number 7.

After opening as touchdown favorites, the Cowboys are now 6.5-point favorites.

Trends

• The Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
• The Cowboys are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
• Under is 5-1-1 in the Cowboys' last 7 games overall.

The pick: Cowboys win a muddy one

With the game's total set at 49 points, I believe there's an overreaction to Dak Prescott's return from injury. Sure, the Cowboys will face the worst defense in the NFL per DVOA. But since it's also terrible against the run, I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas heads into this one with a conservative game plan.

Mike McCarthy has publicly stated this is a defense-first team and such has been the message even before Prescott's thumb injury. So while I expect more aggression in the Cowboys' approach, I don't expect them to suddenly become a pass-happy offense in Week 7.

Meanwhile, the Lions have a very sound running game that should make the clock wind down pretty quickly. I expect them to move the football just enough to drag this one out and maybe even force a closer game than expected.

Here's a bit of what I wrote on the Cowboys' run defense earlier in the week:

"Physicality and gap integrity every step of the way.

Perhaps we see different defensive fronts that feature “bigger” guys on the line. I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes the first game in which Micah Parsons spends most snaps as an off-ball linebacker, too.

They’ll need a big outing from their second-level defense and if Parsons is truly a chess piece, you might want him making plays at linebacker instead of rushing the passer versus an offense that rarely throws on early downs."

I've got the Cowboys winning but the total is set a little bit too high for me and on the right side of key number 47. Give me the under and let's bounce back from our first loss of the season in this series.

The bet: TOTAL UNDER 49

Season bets: 5-1

Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%) 

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Kirthmon F. Dozier, Detroit Free Press, Detroit Free Press via Imagn Content Services, LLC

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