Dallas Cowboys' offense featured troublesome, predictable trends
The 2021 Dallas Cowboys story is divided into two chapters. The chapter is the first half of the season. The offense was a powerhouse that not only went on a six-game winning streak, but was also one of the most efficient units in the NFL. The second chapter is, well, the second half of the […]
The 2021 Dallas Cowboys story is divided into two chapters.
The chapter is the first half of the season. The offense was a powerhouse that not only went on a six-game winning streak, but was also one of the most efficient units in the NFL.
The second chapter is, well, the second half of the season. The offense was a shell of itself in which it suffered a massive decline in production.
Kellen Moore was one of the hottest coaching assistants around the league when things were going well. Now? A huge portion of Cowboys Nation is ready to move on from him.
The frustration is warranted. Even though I don't believe we should give up on Moore's future as a coach. But it's clear that there are issues.
Today, we'll get into three head-scratching trends the Cowboys' offense went through in 2021. When looking at these trends, I think we can break down the Dallas Cowboys' issues in two.
- They became more predictable in the second half of the season.
- They didn't use things that were clearly working out for them.
Note: Statistics are from Sports Info Solutions unless noted otherwise.
Trend No. 1: Cowboys' play selection from the shotgun
This one is a tricky one. Although the percentage difference doesn't seem like a big deal, their league rankings reveal that it was a major change. Here are the Cowboys pass/run splits out of the shotgun throughout the season:
Weeks 1-8: 79% pass (14th), 21% run (19th)
Weeks 9-17: 85% pass, (3rd), 15% run (30th)
Their rates through the first half of the season are close to league average while in the second half they were relatively predictable when lined up in the shotgun. And that seemingly impacted their production as the Cowboys went from the second-best success rate in the NFL to 23rd in the league.
Now granted, the differences in success rates can be the result of a lot of factors. The Rams, for instance, had a similar pass/run ratio and still had a high success rate. But there was clearly a big change in how the Cowboys went about their play selection.
Another example of predictability came in the form of personnel groupings. The Cowboys went from using 11 (one running back, one tight end) personnel 55% of the time in the first eight weeks of the season to 74% starting in Week 9.
Trend No. 2: Passing out of 12 personnel
There is no denying the Dallas Cowboys were productive using 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends). Especially when throwing the football. Yet, it's something they didn't come back to frequently enough.
Despite owning the fourth-best success rate in the league when passing out of 12 personnel, the Cowboys ranked 24th in usage rate of this tendency.
Back when the Cowboys beat the Patriots, 12 personnel was something they came back to settle in on offense. That didn't seem to happen again for the rest of the season. Perhaps Dallas should've been more confident in their backup tight ends. After Blake Jarwin's injury, Moore failed to involve them as pass catchers.
Trend No. 3: Play-action was working!
For some reason, the Cowboys didn't focus on play-action despite having the second-best success rate in the league at it. They were 19th in the league in play-action usage.
Many would argue that play-action can't work that well unless you 1) rarely use it or 2) you have a productive running game (Cowboys didn't).
But those statements have proven to be wrong again and again. Teams can benefit from play-action without "establishing the run." Dak Prescott is a master at play fakes and his mechanics are widely recognized.
These are only three trends of many that reveal some of the problems the Cowboys went through during the regular season. Sure, players have to show up and play well. But when people point toward coaching issues, this is what they mean. When looking closely at the numbers, the evidence shows up.
Kellen Moore is great at play design, and he might end up having the coaching career people have been predicting for him since he came out of college. But there are things that definitely need cleaning up before he -and the Cowboys offense- can reach their full potential.
Featured image via Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
