The Dallas Cowboys 'Hit' rate every round of the NFL Draft
The perception of the Dallas Cowboys is that they are very good draft team. Just looking at the number of Pro Bowlers, Hall of Famers or even just long-term starters is evidence enough. But how often do these picks hit in the league? Just looking at the first rounders, you can assume at the very least […]
The perception of the Dallas Cowboys is that they are very good draft team. Just looking at the number of Pro Bowlers, Hall of Famers or even just long-term starters is evidence enough.
But how often do these picks hit in the league? Just looking at the first rounders, you can assume at the very least the Cowboys are great in the first round:
However, beyond the first round, the Cowboys are inconsistent in how well they draft. In fairness, it's always harder to find ruby in a mountain of rocks (R.I.P. Meatloaf), but it does happen.
If we expand this list year-by-year and round-by-round, we see a clearer picture of just how effective the Dallas Cowboys are across the line.
DISCLAIMER: Only using drafts from 2011-2020. The 2021 draft class is only a year in and way too early to tell.
What is considered a hit is a pick who was an elite-level talent, quality starter or played above expectations based on where they were drafted.
A miss is any player who never (or has yet to) live up to their draft standards, was released before their rookie contract expired or was never able to make it to the field for the Cowboys. This also applies to players who later found success in the NFL, just not in Dallas.
Players whose career ended under their rookie contract due to injury are N/A. They won't factor into the percentages.
2011
Round 1: Tyron Smith – hit
Round 2: Bruce Carter – hit
Round 3: DeMarco Murray – hit
Round 4: David Arkin – miss
Round 5:Josh Thomas – miss
Round 6: Dwayne Harris – hit
Round 7: Shaun Chapas – miss
Round 7: Bill Nagy – N/A
2012
Round 1: Morris Claiborne – miss
Round 3: Tyrone Crawford – hit
Round 4: Kyle Wilber – hit
Round 4:Matt Johnson – miss
Round 5: Danny Coale – miss
Round 6: James Hanna – hit
Round 7: Caleb McSurdy – miss
2013
Round 1: Travis Frederick – hit
Round 2: Gavin Escobar – miss
Round 3: Terrance Williams – hit
Round 3: J.J. Wilcox – hit
Round 4: B.W. Webb – miss
Round 5:Joseph Randle – miss
Round 6: DeVonte Holloman – N/A
2014
Round 1: Zack Martin – hit
Round 2: DeMarcus Lawrence – hit
Round 4: Anthony Hitchens – hit
Round 5: Devin Street – miss
Round 7:Ben Gardner – N/A
Round 7: Will Smith – miss
Round 7: Ahmad Dixon – miss
Round 7: Ken Bishop – miss
Round 7: Terrance Mitchell – miss
2015
Round 1: Byron Jones – hit
Round 2: Randy Gregory – hit
Round 3: Chaz Green – miss
Round 4: Damien Wilson – hit
Round 5:Ryan Russell – miss
Round 7: Mark Nzeocha – miss
Round 7: Laurence Gibson – miss
Round 7: Geoff Swaim – hit
2016
Round 1: Ezekiel Elliott – hit
Round 2: Jaylon Smith – hit
Round 3: Maliek Collins – hit
Round 4: Charles Tapper – N/A
Round 4: Dak Prescott – hit
Round 6:Anthony Brown – hit
Round 6: Kavon Frazier – hit
Round 6: Darius Jackson – miss
Round 6: Rico Gathers – miss
2017
Round 1: Taco Charleton – miss
Round 2: Chidobe Awuzie – hit
Round 3: Jourdan Lewis – hit
Round 4: Ryan Switzer – miss
Round 6:Xavier Woods– hit
Round 6: Marquez White – miss
Round 7: Joey Ivie – miss
Round 7: Noah Brown – hit
Round 7: Jordan Carrell – miss
2018
Round 1: Leighton Vander Esch – hit
Round 2: Connor Williams – hit
Round 3: Michael Gallup – hit
Round 4: Dorance Armstrong – hit
Round 4:Dalton Schultz – hit
Round 5: Mike White – miss
Round 6: Chris Covington – miss
Round 6: Cedrick Wilson – hit
Round 7: Bo Scarbrough – miss
2019
Round 2: Trysten Hill – miss
Round 3: Connor McGovern – miss
Round 4: Tony Pollard – hit
Round 5:Michael Jackson – miss
Round 5:Joe Jackson – miss
Round 6: Donovan Wilson – hit
Round 7: Mike Weber – miss
Round 7:Jalen Jelks – miss
2020
Round 1: CeeDee Lamb – hit
Round 2: Trevon Diggs – hit
Round 3: Neville Gallimore – hit
Round 4: Reggie Robinson – miss
Round 4:Tyler Bidasz – hit
Round 5: Bradlee Anae – miss
Round 7: Ben DiNucci – miss
Hit Rate %
- Round 1: 9 total selections. 77.8%
- Round 2: 9 total selections. 77.8%
- Round 3: 10 total selections. 90%
- Round 4: 14 total selections. 61.5%
- Round 5: 9 total selections. 0.00%
- Round 6: 12 total selections. 63.6%
- Round 7: 18 total selections. 12.5%
It's an encouraging sign that Dallas is landing so many quality players in the first two days and top 100 selections. The despairing comparisons on day three are shocking.
Not only do the Cowboys sharply decline from the fourth quarter, but any quality picks from rounds 5-7 are almost exclusively in the sixth.
This year, the Dallas Cowboys have nine total picks: A first, second, third, fourth, 4 fifths and a sixth. If this trend continues, the Cowboys could be looking at a very compelling draft.
Mandatory Credit: James D. Smith via USA TODAY Sports
