Super Bowl LVIII is in the books and the San Francisco 49ers didn't leave Las Vegas with the Lombardi Trophy. The good news is that according to oddsmakers, the 49ers are already the favorite to win the Super Bowl next year. But how reasonable is that expectation? And how long can the 49ers keep their Super Bowl window open since they can't keep paying Brock Purdy pennies for his services forever?

The Uncomfortable Cap Conversation

The 49ers built their roster well to win it all this year, but as our own Wendell Ferreira already outlined last night, they're over the cap for 2024 already when you account for the money required to bring in their incoming rookie class.

They will still likely want to add at least someone in free agency, plus leave about $10 million dollars more for mid-season signings for injuries and other necessary replacements. All in all they likely need to create somewhere around $20 million dollars via some mix of creative contract restructuring, trades, and/or difficult cut decisions.

Let's dive into each option, and how the 49ers are still likely seeing their Super Bowl window close soon any way they slice it now.

Contract Restructuring

One thing teams have gotten fairly good at is contract structure, especially in the implementation of void years on the back end to lengthen competitive windows. In fact the the 49ers have been one of the more proactive teams in this regard given their roster construction already.

When talking with my good friend Andrew Hayslip (creator of Queryball.com and salary cap expert) he suggested that the 49ers' easiest path to fixing their cap issues via restructure for 2024 would be Deebo Samuel since his cap hit is so high. If they're looking to sign him to an extension at some point they could potentially restructure in the short-term (pushing dollars down the road). They would likely want to extend him in 2025 to avoid massive cap costs via contract void years built in via restructure, but is that enough to keep their Super Bowl window open?

Regardless of what they do with Deebo, the 49ers have already restructured a handful of other expensive players with multiple void years ranging from 2026 to 2028 where massive money could be due if those players aren't extended. If they do try to extend McCaffrey, Ward, Armstead, or Kittle (players with void years on the back end of their contracts already) then they still likely put themselves in an extremely tight cap position every year beyond 2025, and that's not even accounting for Brock Purdy's extension.

Trade Away a Star?

Another option for the 49ers to fix their cap situation (at least for now) would be to trade away Brandon Aiyuk. He carries a cap hit over $14 million dollars, so moving off of him could easily create most of the space they may need, at least for 2024..

However, finding decent compensation in return for a player they have signed through only the end of 2024 is tough. They would be sending away perhaps their best receiver, ultimately hurting their chances in the short-term amid trying to win now.

Most every other cap-hit heavy player wouldn't be a great option to trade away either, but Aiyuk is at least feasible and certainly desirable for other teams.

Difficult Cut Decisions

The least messy option may actually unfortunately be to cut some fan favorites like Kyle Juszczyk or Arik Armstead. Both are difficult to trade given cap costs. But both would help get the team to a reasonable spot cap-wise without completely torching either side of the ball. It would just simply be difficult because it would feel a bit odd not getting anything in return for them.

Unfortunate Conclusions

As is the case with many Super Bowl runner-ups, the 49ers will be losing some key contributors like Chase Young, Javon Kinlaw, Tashaun Gipson, and Jauan Jennings. There's virtually no way their cap situation would allow any of them to return.

If the 49ers do end up cutting a couple more players then how quickly do they lose their identity on at least one side of the ball? If they end up restructuring then their cap situation becomes a complete mess beyond 2025 (where they could end up like the Saints, buried in dead cap unable to field a winning roster).

If the team trades away a star receiver like Aiyuk do they lose some chemistry and extremely valuable production from a spot that helped them reach Super Bowl LVIII? Yes.

There just simply aren't great options for the 49ers to take actions that would put them in a similar or better situation in comparison to this season. Not even for 2024, let alone 2025 and beyond.

The Brock Purdy extension is coming too, and when it does then that means two to three top tier stars likely won't be able to play for the 49ers.

So does this mean the 49ers window might be closing faster than we thought? Absolutely. The next few weeks will be critical in positioning themselves to stay competitive for years to come.