Minnesota Vikings could trade into the top 5 of the 2024 NFL Draft but it would be a bad idea
The NFL season is officially over, but the Minnesota Vikings have been laying the foundation for the 2024 season since the second week of January. While missing out on the playoffs sucks, this team has a lot of questions to answer and things to figure out over the coming months, so the extra time is […]
The NFL season is officially over, but the Minnesota Vikings have been laying the foundation for the 2024 season since the second week of January. While missing out on the playoffs sucks, this team has a lot of questions to answer and things to figure out over the coming months, so the extra time is good, in a way.
Regardless, the biggest question of the Vikings offseason is what they do at the quarterback position. There are two ways it can go: They bring back Kirk Cousins or another guy replaces him and the Vikings take on $28.5 million in dead cap.
Obviously, Minnesota can either sign a guy in free agency or they can draft a guy in what appears to be a loaded QB class. Maybe they get lucky and find a bridge guy in the former scenario, but it's the latter path that gives the Vikings their best shot at finding a signal-caller for the next 10-15 years,.
With that being said: Should the Vikings try and trade up in the draft in order to get their guy?
Three of the top four teams could certainly, and will probably, take a QB
The Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, and New England Patriots own the first three picks and all three teams could easily take a quarterback with their respective pick. So, the best chance to move into the top-5 would be dancing with either the Arizona Cardinals at No. 4 or the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5.
Moving from No. 11 to No. 4 or No. 5 is already going to be expensive, but it's like an Uber surge when moving into the top-5 picks – things get even pricier.
Using the Jimmy Johnson/Rich Hill trade value charts, a realistic scenario -for either team- would be the Vikings trading the No. 11 pick and their second-rounder, which should be the equivalent of the 43rd overall pick, in the 2024 draft. They'd have to add next year's first-rounder, too. Assuming the 2025 first-rounder is equivalent to the 17th overall pick (splitting the bill), the Rich Hill chart nets the Cardinals a plus-301 margin and the Chargers a plus-324 margin, both equivalents of picking in the middle of the first round. The Jimmy Johnson chart nets the Cardinals a plus-870 margin and the Chargers a plus-970 margin, which equates to mid-first-round picks, as well.
And of course, a player can always be thrown in to help lower the amount of picks, but that's almost impossible to gauge in a realistic manner. We don't want to turn this into Madden.
Vikings would still be picking from scraps
The key with all of this, outside of competition making the hypothetical move even more expensive, is Minnesota would still be picking off the scrap heap if it were to move up to No. 4 or No. 5.
Because as mentioned earlier, the first three teams need a quarterback and it's very likely all three take one. In that case, Minnesota would be left with the fourth option and while that may be a solid option, still, is it worth all the investment it took to get there? Especially if they could've waited til No. 11 to get the guy?
Best-case scenario is the Bears trade out of the pick or take a Marvin Harrison Jr. with the first overall pick. But even if they trade out, the team trading up is doing so to take a QB. And if not's the Commanders or Patriots, then the Vikings would be in the exact same situation, the only difference is another team taking a QB No. 1 instead of Chicago.
There's only one way for this to make sense
And it's for the Vikings to be the team that trades with the Bears. But as we know, that's going to be extremely pricey and for a team with plenty of roster holes and not a ton of cap room – it wouldn't be very conducive to winning games in 2024. And, I can promise that unless Justin Jefferson is included in the trade (which he won't be), the Vikings will be without first-rounders in 2024, 2025, and 2026 if this were to happen. So, the Vikings wouldn't necessarily be setting their new signal-caller up for maximum success by pulling something like this off. But, they'd have their guy, at least.
Overall, it's better for the Vikings to sit back and wait, especially in this class. Sure, the elite prospects are always the ones to gun for, but there are going to be guys available at No. 11 and even at No. 43 that could turn into franchise QBs or solid players, at worst.
And as we saw with Minnesota last year, if the Vikings can just receive even standard, competent QB play – they should be in the playoffs.
