Top 5 players most likely to get hit with the franchise tag before the start of the 2024 NFL offseason
The NFL offseason is officially underway and one of the more important dates is, soon, the franchise tag window opens up and teams can apply tags to applicable players.There are three different types of tags, with the non-exclusive franchise tag being the most commonly used. In essence, it's worth a certain amount, per position, and […]
The NFL offseason is officially underway and one of the more important dates is, soon, the franchise tag window opens up and teams can apply tags to applicable players.
There are three different types of tags, with the non-exclusive franchise tag being the most commonly used. In essence, it's worth a certain amount, per position, and if a team applies the tag, the tagged player is allowed to negotiate with other teams. If one or more of said teams offer said player a deal, the tagging team has a chance to match, or better, the deal. If they refuse, they'll receive two first-round picks in exchange for the player and the "challenging" team will receive the player and sign him to the deal.
The franchise tag is a one-year deal that is guaranteed and paid in the form of base salary throughout the season. Teams can only apply one of the three tags to one player on their roster and they have until July 15 (unless the 15th lands on a weekend) to sign the tagged player to a multi-year deal.
So, who are the most likely players to receive the tag when the window opens up from February 20-March 5? Note: All projected tenders are via Over The Cap unless stated otherwise.
1) WR Tee Higgins
Projected Tag Tender: $21,665,000
Higgins finished out his rookie contract in 2023 and he's currently projected to make No. 1 receiver money at $23.5 million a year, per A to Z Sports cap analysts Josh Queipo and Kyle DeDiminicantanio.
That's a lot of cash if Higgins hits the open market, which shouldn't happen, according to A to Z Sports Cincinnati's John Sheeran:
Higgins can essentially be viewed as the wide receiver version of Jessie Bates III. The Bengals tried on multiple occasions to reach a long-term deal with Bates knowing that he’d be a prized player on the market, which is why they placed the franchise tag on him. Cincinnati will execute the same plan with Higgins for the sake of maintaining roster control on a highly valued player. The idea of them letting him walk as soon as possible is far-fetched to say the least. A tag-and-trade can’t be dismissed outright, but it will be for a high price, and only towards a team that won’t directly benefit from the Bengals losing him. That includes practically every contending AFC team.
Higgins is a big part of the Cinncinnati Bengals offense and Sheeran's right: Smart teams don't let good players just walk for nothing.
2) S Antonine Winfield Jr.
Projected Tag Tender: $17,220,000
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have some big decisions to make with several of their best players this offseason and one of said decisions easily revolves around the future of Winfield Jr.
The soon-to-be fifth-year safety is coming off the best year of his career, which is a lot to say considering how much of an impact he's made since Day 1 in Tampa Bay. Winfield Jr. has been the centerpiece of several Bucs memories that will live in franchise lore and one can even argue he's the main reason the Bucs beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 18 and made the playoffs.
Like Higgins, the Bucs can't let Winfield Jr. hit the market. They may have to, however, as both Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are set to become free agents, themselves. When considering the tag numbers, age, and career trajectory of the three, it makes most sense to ultimately tag Winfield Jr.
3) WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Projected Tag Tender: $21,665,000
Pittman Jr. has quietly put together a nice career, so far with the Indianapolis Colts, which has led many within the organization to believe he's a prime candidate to get tagged, per A to Z Sports Indy's Destin Adams:
Every person close to the Colts that I've spoken with has shared that they would be shocked if the team let Michael Pittman Jr. hit the open market. He seems to be the top priority to re-sign when it comes to their in-house free agents. The Colts' preferred route would be an agreed-too extension prior to free agency opening, but if they sense that isn't possible, I believe they would use the franchise tage. Which would be a notable move, since the last player the team used the franchise tag on was Pat McAfee.
To be clear: that was in 2013. Nearly 11-years ago. Talk about breaking a trend.
4) CB Jaylon Johnson
Projected Tag Tender: $18,421,000
Johnson is coming off the best year of his career and it's clear he's a very good fit in Matt Eberflus' system. Cornerback is obviously a premium position in the NFL and smart teams don't let good corners walk for nothing. At the same time, Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles isn't cheap, but he's also not going to just burn money, which has left this situation on track to include the tag, per A to Z Sports Chicago's Kole Noble:
Johnson should be considered one of the top candidates in the entire league to get franchise tagged in 2024. The relationship between him and the Bears seems mendable with both sides willing to structure a long-term deal. However, the main discrepancy is how much money he’s truly worth. Johnson believes he should be paid among the top players at the position, but the Bears are hesitant to give him that kind of money, and rightfully so. By playing under the franchise tag next season, Johnson will get his guaranteed money and the Bears can determine whether or not his career year in 2023 was a sign of things to come or just an anomaly.b
5) EDGE Brian Burns
Projected Tag Tender: $23,348,000
This one is pretty obvious because the Panthers weren't even willing to part ways with Burns for not one, not two, but three first-rounders a couple of years ago. And sure, while they'd probably be happy with two first-rounders, his play didn't fall off that bad in 2023.
If the Carolina Panthers truly want Ejiro Evero to turn the defense around, keeping Burns is a must. And it's very clear the Panthers value Burns, a lot, so the smart move is to keep your guy off the free market in hopes of working out a long-term deal. And if things just can't be worked out – go get those two first-rounders (if another team offers Burns, obviously).
