NFL Draft analyst shockingly claims there are only 16 prospects with first round grades in this class
Every single NFL Draft class is unique. And although there are 32 picks in the first round it's very seldom that we get a draft class deep enough to give us 32 consensus "first round grade" prospects. Usually that number is somewhere just over 20 players (via consensus mock draft data and league sources). But […]
Every single NFL Draft class is unique. And although there are 32 picks in the first round it's very seldom that we get a draft class deep enough to give us 32 consensus "first round grade" prospects. Usually that number is somewhere just over 20 players (via consensus mock draft data and league sources). But one particular ESPN NFL Draft analyst believes there are only 16 prospects with a first round grade in this class!
ESPN's Matt Miller has been covering the NFL Draft for more than a decade now, doing so full-time for some of the best publications in the business. He believes only 16 players should have first round grades this year.
Miller does a fun job breaking down each player and offering a pro comparison that fits their style of play. However, that doesn't change the fact that 16 is quite a low number of first round grades for any given class.
Here's the full list of 16 first round grade prospects, according to Miller:
| Player | Position | School | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
Caleb Williams | QB | USC | 1 |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State | 2 |
Malik Nabers | WR | LSU | 3 |
Rome Odunze | WR | Washington | 4 |
Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU | 5 |
Drake Maye | QB | North Carolina | 6 |
Terrion Arnold | CB | Alabama | 7 |
Joe Alt | OT | Notre Dame | 8 |
Dallas Turner | EDGE | Alabama | 9 |
Brock Bowers | TE | Georgia | 10 |
Olumuyiwa Fashanu | OT | Penn State | 11 |
Taliese Fuaga | OT | Oregon State | 12 |
Byron Murphy | DT | Texas | 13 |
Jared Verse | EDGE | Florida State | 14 |
Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | CB | Missouri | 15 |
Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | LSU | 16 |
His ranks here are not too far off of current mock draft consensus. If we look at the last 100+ mock drafts recorded over the last four weeks the only players missing who are selected inside the first round more than 90% of the time are as follows:
- JC Latham, OT Alabama
- Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA
- Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson
- Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa
- Amarius Mims, OT Georgia
- Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton, DT Illinois
- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama
If we add those seven players to Matt Miller's 16 we get 23 consensus first-round-grade type players via the current consensus among all who cover the NFL Draft right now. That number of first round grades is much closer to the norm for most classes.
Plus there are a few other top players rising into that mix like wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. of LSU (a top 15 player according to Daniel Jeremiah) and stud cornerback Quinyon Mitchell out of Toledo.
Miller may believe there are only 16 first round grades in this class, but that sure seems low given all the names still seemingly rising up draft boards right now.
