Packers free agent watch list: RB AJ Dillon
Four years later, you can confidently say that the Green Bay Packers plan for running back AJ Dillon has never materialized. When general manager Brian Gutekunst took him with the 62nd overall pick in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft (he was the 113th player on The Athletic's Consensus Big Board), there was […]
Four years later, you can confidently say that the Green Bay Packers plan for running back AJ Dillon has never materialized. When general manager Brian Gutekunst took him with the 62nd overall pick in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft (he was the 113th player on The Athletic's Consensus Big Board), there was an idea that eventually he would be a full time starter.
After all, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams were both entering contract years. However, the Packers re-signed Jones and, even four years later, the older running back is still more efficient. Now, Dillon is slated to be a free agent, and his future in Green Bay is uncertain.
"AJ's been a great member of our team," Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said right after the season. "You got to have multiple backs in this league. You have to. It's just the pounding these guys take. I think you could really see his value every year towards the end of the season."
AJ Dillon was always a running back two. In terms of success rate, he's effective, but he always lacked explosiveness. Throughout his career, his average of yards per carry was a good indication of offensive line play, because he didn't have much ability to create extra yards — something Aaron Jones excels at.
Dillon's best season was in 2021, his first one as the secondary runner, when he had 803 yards and five touchdowns. The 2023 season was his worst since his rookie year, with 613 yards, and his worst in terms of average per run (3.4).
Even playing 15 regular season games, Dillon still didn't lead the team in rushing yards — 656 to 613 for Jones, who played 11 games. A stinger forced Dillon to miss the final regular season game against the Chicago Bears and two playoff games, against the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers.
Fit
The biggest question mark regarding AJ Dillon on the Packers at this point is fit. Yes, the team drafted him in the second round and Matt LaFleur was already the offensive play-designer. Nonetheless, if you watch around the league, teams with this kind of system are getting better results from faster running backs.
It applies to the Packers with Aaron Jones, for sure, but also for Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, and Jeff Wilson for the Miami Dolphins, Christian McCaffrey and Eli Mitchell for the San Francisco 49ers. Faster players are generally speaking better to attack holes on outside zone scheme runs, and Dillon has had problems doing so — sometimes, there's a feeling that a hole was open, but Dillon got to it too late.
Market value
Now, the question is if the Packers will see enough value in Dillon's game to bring him back. According to Spotrac, he's expected to sign a one-year, $3.5 million contract.
The running back will test the market and see if he can get more than that. If he can, it's probably from a team willing to give him the starting job. And if not, it might make sense for the Packers to re-sign a player who knows Matt LaFleur's system, the organization, and his teammates.
And it will be an overall tough market for him. First because, well, it's been tough for every running back. And also because the free agent market is full of good players. Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler are among them. Sure, original teams might re-sign them before free agency, but that would also take teams off the market.
Verdict
AJ Dillon is a good member of the team, both as a player and as a person, but they are already paying a premium to have Aaron Jones at running back. The Packers need more speed to rotate with Jones, and they will probably find better answers in the draft.
If Green Bay can re-sign Dillon for something close to a minimum contract on a prove-it deal, there's little reason not to do it, but there will probably be better opportunities to complement Aaron Jones in the short-term — and to replace him in the future.
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