Chiefs massive home favorites over Raiders on Christmas

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) are heading home for Christmas to face their most bitter AFC West rival, the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8), at Arrowhead Stadium during Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season.  The Raiders are coming off a dominant win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Las Vegas beat them so badly that Dean […]

Charles Goldman NFL Managing Editor
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Chiefs at Raiders, 2022.

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) are heading home for Christmas to face their most bitter AFC West rival, the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8), at Arrowhead Stadium during Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season. 

The Raiders are coming off a dominant win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Las Vegas beat them so badly that Dean Spanos did what he should have done a calendar year ago and fired both HC Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco. 

The Chiefs are coming off their first win in the last three games, but it came against a struggling New England Patriots team.

According to the folks at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are 10-point favorites over the Raiders in Week 16. The over/under point total is 41 points. The Kansas City moneyline is currently listed at -520, giving the Chiefs an 83.87% implied win probability.

Why are oddsmakers favoring the Chiefs so heavily?

Kansas City defeated Las Vegas 31-17 on the road in the Week 12 matchup between these two teams right around Thanksgiving. The Raiders have certainly improved since then, especially the quarterback play of rookie Aidan O'Connell. 

A big reason the Chiefs are heavily favored in this one has to do with what they have at stake. A win for Kansas City on Monday would get them a flawless spate of Christmas presents.

Victory means that the Chiefs would punch their ticket to the playoffs, but it also has the potential to be a big piece of NFL history. A Week 16 win would give K.C. claim to the title of the most dominant team in the history of the AFC West. Their eight consecutive AFC West titles would mark the most consecutive titles by a team in division history. Their 16 total AFC West titles would also be the most by any team in the division as well. 

Beyond that, Las Vegas is clinging desperately to playoff hopes. Right now, they're given just a 2% chance to make it. A win against the Chiefs would jump those chances to 8%, while a loss would lessen those chances below 1% and virtually eliminate the Raiders from contention.