Bills' playoff chances have nearly doubled in just a week's time
Man, what a difference a week -especially a few weeks- makes in the NFL. A few weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills were coming off an awful loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. At 6-6, the team appeared to be lost and had just a 42% chance of making the playoffs, per the New York Times' playoff machine.Then […]
Man, what a difference a week -especially a few weeks- makes in the NFL.
A few weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills were coming off an awful loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. At 6-6, the team appeared to be lost and had just a 42% chance of making the playoffs, per the New York Times' playoff machine.
Then came Von Miller's arrest during the bye week and Sean McDermott's awful 9/11 speech. Things simply weren't good and the season was careening toward a playoff-less end.
But, that's all changed after two huge wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys. The Bills are now 8-6 and their chances of making the playoffs are at 71% – nearly double what they were just a week ago.
Sure, the team is currently sitting at No. 9, but the four teams in front of them are easily within reach when it comes to passing them in the rankings:
- No. 5: Cleveland Browns (9-5)
- No. 6: Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
- No. 7: Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
- No. 8: Houston Texans (8-6)
Only the Bengals hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills, so they would need to lose for Buffalo to leap over them. The rest of the potential tiebreakers with the other three teams would come down to another factor such as conference record, common opponents win/loss percentage, etc.
The Bills currently have a 4-5 conference record and they play the Los Angeles Chargers this week. If they beat the Chargers, they'll obviously move to 5-5.
The Texans actually play the Browns in Week 16, which is ideal. If the Texans lose and the Bills win, then Buffalo jumps up to No. 8. If the Texans win and the Bills win, then Houston holds the common opponents tiebreaker.
The Colts have a 6-4 AFC record and play the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16, so the Bills need them to lose since the Colts' conference record is better. And, finally, the Browns have a 6-3 conference record, so nothing is changing there, win or lose, either.
The most ideal Week 16 scenario for the Bills' playoff hopes is…
A Bills win, obviously and for starters. Then, a Texans win coupled with Bengals and Colts losses would be the way to go.
Buffalo needs everyone getting pulled to the middle, as much as possible. It would jump two 8-7 squads in the Colts and Bengals, thus handing them the seventh seed. The Texans would move up to No. 6.
Then, the Browns would be sitting at 9-6 with a 6-4 conference record. Now, Buffalo would be just one win and one Browns loss away from matching that conference record. The Bills need them to lose as much as possible, however, because the Browns will likely hold the common games tiebreaker if it gets down to that. In terms of eventually leaping the Browns – the Bills simply need them to lose as much as possible.
And, the Bills would have a chance to really strengthen their shot at holding a conference record tiebreaker, because their last three games are AFC matchups. In all, the Bills could be 7-5 in the AFC when it's all said and done.
Either way, Buffalo is sitting in a very nice spot after things were looking pretty dire not too long ago. Josh Allen said the team tends to play its best when their backs are against the wall and so far, that's been the case.
We'll see if it continues to hold up over this final season-defining stretch.
