Bears can't trade back too far from the first overall pick
The Chicago Bears are looking ahead toward the 2024 NFL Draft with the 2023 season officially in the books. The Bears are armed with the first and ninth overall picks in the first round of April's draft but who's to say the Bears will remain in that position by the time the draft rolls around. […]
The Chicago Bears are looking ahead toward the 2024 NFL Draft with the 2023 season officially in the books.
The Bears are armed with the first and ninth overall picks in the first round of April's draft but who's to say the Bears will remain in that position by the time the draft rolls around.
The Bears traded the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers, a trade that had immediate success for the future of the organization. Could Bears general manager Ryan Poles follow a similar approach in 2024?
The possibility looks to be more tricky this time around with a great crop of top-end quarterbacks set to enter into the draft. The Bears could plan to stay a one and select their top quarterback or trade out of the selection with another quarterback hungry team and roll into 2024 with Justin Fields as the starter once again.
The Bears are expected to of course do their due diligence on the upcoming quarterback prospects before making any decision. Last year, the Bears and Panthers trade for the first overall pick went down on March 10th, so there's still plenty of time for evaluations to first take place.
However, the early indications from those around league circles suggest the Bears could be open for business with the number one pick for the second consecutive season. On his weekly Football Morning in America, NBC Sports' Peter King gave his insight and opinion on what he believes the Bears could do.
"The Bears, at 1, should be able to get a 2022-like ransom for the pick with so many good quarterbacks in the pool. I expect GM Ryan Poles to trade the pick, but it’s too early to say that with certainty." – According to Peter King's FMIA Week 18.
ESPN reported last week that the Bears could potentially receive a higher return for the first overall pick this year than what they received from the Panthers in 2023, even from teams within the Top-5 selections. The Bears received wide receiver DJ Moore, a 2023 first-round swap to No. 9, a late 2023 second-round pick (No. 61), the first overall pick in 2024 and a 2025 second-round pick from the Panthers last spring.
Trading back once again and coming away with an ever higher haul than what the team got from Carolina and staying in the Top-5 seems like a no-brainer for Poles. However, the current draft board could complicate things. Let's take a look at the top of the current draft order.
2024 NFL Draft Top 5 Order:
1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers)
2. Washington Commanders
3. New England Patriots
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Los Angeles Chargers
The reason this gets tricky for the Bears is simple. If the Bears plan to trade down, it's a given that Fields will return as the starter, which then puts Chicago out of the running for one of the top quarterback prospects.
The Bears could then turn their attention to either the top wide receiver or offensive lineman in the class to build around Fields. Poles shouldn’t be interested in moving out of the Top-5 this time around if he wants the top player at either position.
The Commanders, at two, and the Patriots, at three, are both more than likely looking to select their next franchise quarterback in 2024. Those two are the Bears prime targets considering Poles could pit the two into a bidding war to move up for their ideal quarterback prospect.
If the Bears slide beyond the Top-5 with a team such as the Giants or Falcons, they could find themselves out of range for the best wide receiver or offensive lineman.
Multiple draft experts have linked the Cardinals to top wide receiver prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. and many expect the Chargers to lean toward a wide receiver or offensive lineman with their first pick. Here's how ESPN's Field Yates suggested the top four picks could play out.
If the Bears fall in love with Harrison and not a quarterback throughout the process, Poles will have to be careful not to fall too far back down the board which could allow the Cardinals to swipe him.
It'll be an interesting dance soon to take place within the top picks in the draft but Poles will be the one leading it. We'll see what decisions he ends up making.
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