Cowboys: Concern level for every potential Wild Card opponent
The Dallas Cowboys control their own destiny entering Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. Win and not only do they claim the NFC East division title but they secure the No. 2 seed in the conference. That would mean they'd guarantee themselves home-field advantage through the Divisional Round. They still need to win in […]
The Dallas Cowboys control their own destiny entering Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. Win and not only do they claim the NFC East division title but they secure the No. 2 seed in the conference.
That would mean they'd guarantee themselves home-field advantage through the Divisional Round. They still need to win in Washington to make this happen, however. Nothing is not done yet.
But after spending most of the season thinking they'd be a Wild Card squad as they trailed the Philadelphia Eagles in the standings, it's as good of a time as any to get familiar with the new territory. In other words, who they could face in their first playoff game if they stay where they are at.
According to FTN and their DVOA probability metric, there are five potential teams the Cowboys could mathematically host at AT&T Stadium if they stay put at No. 2 of the NFC, ranked from most likely to least likely. Let's dive in. Oh, and I also added a level of concern of facing each team.
Note: The below rankings do not include potential matchups if Cowboys drop to the fifth seed again, in which case they'd face whoever wins the NFC South, most likely the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Potential playoff rivals if Cowboys stay at No. 2
Green Bay Packers, 39% chance of being 7th
- Concern level 2/10
No, the Packers aren't the Cowboys' boogeymen anymore. Aaron Rodgers was. Not this version of Green Bay, though.
As fun as the Mike McCarthy conversation would be leading up to this matchup, I strongly believe the Cowboys would demolish the struggling Joe Barry defense which made Bryce Young look like a mix of Tom Brady, Joe Montana, and Patrick Mahomes.
As for Jordan Love, while I'm excited about his future with what he's done this season, including against the blitz, would be in trouble against Dan Quinn's defense. This game would be a mismatch between an overachieving team and the second best team in the conference.
Seattle Seahawks, 34% chance of being 7th
- Concern level 5/10
Cowboys fans learned in Week 13 that the best version of Geno Smith is a dangerous one. He’s already played in a shootout against Dak Prescott and it was electric.
The Seahawks are an inferior roster on paper but they’ve got some dudes, which makes them a scarier playoff opponent. D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are a dangerous group of wide receivers. As for the defense, they’ve got some very good players at cornerback, too.
I think the Cowboys would have an edge, however, as Smith’s inconsistency is well-documented and he’s playing behind a shaky offensive tackle duo.
Los Angeles Rams, 12% chance of being 7th
- Concern level 7/10
This is the team I’d like to face the least in the Wild Card round. They’re not perfect, as they can even struggle against the New York Giants like they did in Week 17.
But Matthew Stafford is the best quarterback on this list and he gets to throw the football to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. When the Cowboys blew out L.A. earlier in the year, the Rams didn’t have Kyren Williams, who’s rushed for over 100 yards in five out of his last seven games played.
Not to mention, Sean McVay is a certified playoff coach. Even against the Rams, I’d make the Cowboys favorites but this matchup would not be pretty.
New Orleans Saints, 12% chance of being 7th
- Concern level: 3/10
I don’t know what to make of the Saints. They’ve got some playmakers in Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and of course, quarterback Derek Carr. But their biggest handicap against the Cowboys would be the 25th pass blocking offensive line per PFF.
I’d love to see the cornerbacks match up against the Cowboys wide receivers, though. New Orleans has one of the best CB units in the NFL.
Minnesota Vikings, 3% chance of being 7th
- Concern level: 1/10
The Vikings would start Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall in the postseason if they make it. Anything goes in the NFL but it would be a major surprise if the Cowboys struggle against them if they end up facing each other, which seems highly unlikely.
A lot has been made about the Vikings defense but don’t get it twisted: Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has made them overachieve with a great and aggressive scheme.
They need to blitz to generate pressure and you just can’t live in that world against Dak Prescott, who has thrown 11 touchdowns and three interceptions against the blitz, grading as the second best QB in such situations per PFF.
Video evidence proves Cowboys were wronged before Lions
Don’t get it twisted.
