How the Titans can get the 4th overall pick
NASHVILLE — There is just one more weekend of regular season games remaining on the 2023 NFL calendar, and after Week 18, the draft order for the 2024 NFL Draft will be finalized. As things currently sit, the Tennessee Titans would hold the 7th overall pick in April's draft. But things are still very much […]
NASHVILLE — There is just one more weekend of regular season games remaining on the 2023 NFL calendar, and after Week 18, the draft order for the 2024 NFL Draft will be finalized.
As things currently sit, the Tennessee Titans would hold the 7th overall pick in April's draft. But things are still very much subject to change.
Here's how the Titans can get the best draft pick possible this weekend.
Titans won't pick Top 3
After running through every possible scenario from the Week 18 NFL slate, it's mathematically impossible for the Tennessee Titans to land a Top 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
There's no scenario in which the Titans can leapfrog the Carolina Panthers (who only have two wins), or get the tie breaker over the New England Patriots or Washington Commanders.
The tiebreaker for draft picks when two teams have the same record is based on strength of schedule. The team that has played the easier schedule gets the better draft pick. A team's SOS is represented by the combined win percentage of every opponent faced over the regular season.
Tennessee's current SOS is at .529. The Patriots are at .518 and the Commanders are at .515. That gap is insurmountable in one week with only divisional matchups being played this weekend.
Titans could only drop to 8th
With 24 of the 32 NFL teams currently sitting on 7 wins or more, the worst pick the Titans could have in the 2024 NFL Draft is the 8th overall selection.
The only team with the ability of jumping Tennessee is the New York Jets, who are 6-10 on the season and hold the tiebreaker over the Titans.
If the Titans were to pull the upset over the Jacksonville Jaguars and spoil the playoff party for their division rival, the Jets would then be able to jump them with a loss to the New England Patriots. Given New England's 4-12 record and them having the worst point differential in the AFC, that seems unlikely to happen. But it's possible.
Titans can jump to 4th overall
Because the Titans are unable to jump passed the Patriots, Commanders, or Panthers in draft order, the best case scenario for Titans fans rooting for draft position is Tennessee picking 4th overall. But in order to do so, the Titans would need one of two scenarios to play out.
Obviously, if Tennessee is going to move up multiple spots in the draft order, these scenarios start with them losing to the Jaguars on Sunday. That would give the Titans a 5-12 record to conclude the season and put them in the conversation to pass the Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants, or even the Arizona Cardinals.
Scenario One
This first scenario is the simpler of the two that requires fewer results. In scenario one, the Titans lose to the Jaguars, the Giants defeat the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chargers beat the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Cardinals win over the Seattle Seahawks.
In this case, the Chargers and Giants both pick up a win and finish the season at 6-11 while the Titans are sitting at 5-12. Meanwhile, the Cardinals join the Titans at 5-12, and Tennessee would be a lock to hold the tiebreaker.
The Titans would then pick 4th behind New England, Washington, and Carolina (not in that order)…but there is no wiggle room with any of these results.
Scenario Two
In order for the Titans to jump the Giants in the draft order, the Titans must lose and the Giants must win on Sunday. Same thing goes for the Cardinals. Arizona must win and Tennessee must lose for the two teams to trade places.
But with the Chargers, things get a little bit tricky. The Chargers and Titans are close enough in strength of schedule that the winner of the tiebreaker could still change depending on the Week 18 results. While LA currently holds the better draft slot, that's not guaranteed to stand even if the two teams have the same fate this weekend.
There are a few scenarios where the Titans could beat the Jaguars and still wind up improving their draft position if the Chargers win and other results go Tennessee's way. But for the sake of this scenario, let's assume the Titans and Chargers both lose. Now they're both sitting at 5-12. Here's how getting the fourth overall pick would still be possible.
The Giants and Cardinals win their respective games. I've already explained why Tennessee would jump over them if this happens. It would then come down to the strength of schedule tiebreaker between the Titans and Chargers, which will be determined by the results of three different games.
Steelers @ Ravens – Titans have played both, Chargers have only played Baltimore
Cowboys @ Commanders – Titans have played neither, Chargers have played Dallas
Bills @ Dolphins – Titans have only played Miami, Chargers have played both
If the Steelers, Cowboys, and Ravens win these games, the Titans will hold the tiebreaker over the Chargers and jump them in draft order even if the Chargers lose to Kansas City.
If only two of those teams win, the Titans and Chargers would be tied in strength of schedule. A coin toss would then determine who gets the better draft pick.
If the Steelers, Cowboys, and Ravens all win, but the Cardinals lose to the Seahawks, the Titans would not jump the Cardinals and a coin toss would then determine who gets the better draft pick between TEN and LAC.
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