Healthy Aaron Jones shows his value for a Packers playoff push
You might argue that the value of a running back is limited, and that he depends on his situation more than players of other positions in football. And that's true, for the most part. But it's impossible to watch the Green Bay Packers offense and don't see the impact Aaron Jones brings to the table. […]
You might argue that the value of a running back is limited, and that he depends on his situation more than players of other positions in football. And that's true, for the most part. But it's impossible to watch the Green Bay Packers offense and don't see the impact Aaron Jones brings to the table.
He's much more explosive, more efficient, and has much more ability to create beyond what the system and offensive line give him. When Jones is fully healthy, he's a truly impactful offensive weapon, both as a runner and as a receiver. And that's what he was on Sunday, finishing with 135 scrimmage yards during the Packers 33-30 win over the Carolina Panthers.
But it hasn't been an easy season for Jones. First, he had to accept a $5 million paycut to stay with the Packers — it's an unfortunate reality of the running back market. Then he injured his hamstring in week 1 against the Chicago Bears. When Jones was starting to feel like himself again, a new injury, in his knee, happened during the Los Angeles Chargers game.
Gladfully for Jones and the Packers, it wasn't as serious as it initially looked. An MCL sprain took him out of action for three weeks, but he was able to come back this season.
"I showed that Week 1 and I just haven't been healthy to get out there and show it again," Jones said after the Panthers game. "Finally getting back healthy, I feel like I showed people a lot of the doubters, people who may be saying, 'Oh, he's getting too old, blah, blah, blah.' It felt good."
Jones has shown that he still got it, yes, but also that the Packers still can build an offensive gameplan around him. On Sunday, the offense was without Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, and Dontayvion Wicks left the game early. Jones was clearly the main weapon, he was utilized as such, and delivered.
From now on, the Packers badly need Jones. They must win out to make the playoffs, against two ascending defenses — the Minnesota Vikings are fifth in defensive DVOA, and the Chicago Bears are 16th after a slow start.
"I wouldn't say I was fully 100% but who's ever 100% in December?" Jones said. "But definitely getting back to myself and feeling better each week as the weeks go on. Hopefully next week I come out there and I am 100%."
And Jones' history against the Vikings is impressive, by the way. He has four games with at least 100 scrimmage yards against them since 2019. No other running back has more than two — and it's not like the NFC North doesn't have good running backs. In 2019, in another primetime game, he was largely responsible for the Packers win to secure a division title.
In their first matchup this season, though, Jones was still limited. He had only seven carries — solid 4.1 yards per attempt, but too low of a volume to make a real impact on the game.
The Vikings defense is 11th in rush EPA and 19th in success rate. That means they are below average on a down to down basis, but are above average avoiding efficient and explosive plays. That’s how Aaron Jones can be even more impactful.
So far, Aaron Jones has had the worst PFF grade of his career in a season — and whether you value PFF's evaluation or not, it tracks to what he's shown on film. But he also had his best game of the season against the Panthers — 81.4 overall offensive grade. Jones had his best grades both running (83.6) and receiving (77.5).
It's still unclear at this point which receivers the Packers will have back for the Vikings game. But Aaron Jones at full force — or as close to it as one can be in December — is everything the Packers need at the running back position. Perhaps, his future with Green Bay beyond 2023 will be decided by these performances.
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