Ok, So here's how this all started. I reported early Thursday morning that Buccaneers coach Larry Foote compared Jared Goff to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in terms of their prowess in play action. I was immediately met with responses like this:

Lol. Not even close.

— Jay Wiliams ?? (@jaywiliams9) October 12, 2023

Look, I know people see things on the internet and they don't read the article, yet their brains get churning and they decide to respond to the headline without knowing what they're responding to. It's part of the game, but it's a super weird thing to me. It's like lawyer defending their client in court without ever meeting them or knowing anything about the case.

You want me to lower level it? I can do that. It's like telling a fast food employee to make a Whopper and then realizing that they didn't watch the training video because they've eaten a burger before. Why would anyone want to go into a conversation without full knowledge of what it's about. That's what Jay did here. 

Anyhow, here's the thing. What I don't like is just the assumption that a player is worlds ahead of another player because they've been good teams or the cover of video games. So let's take a look. Is Jared Goff really that far a part from Tom Brady and Peyton Manning? 

Keep in mind, and if you follow me on Twitter you already know where this is going: quarterback wins are not real. Don't try to come in here with team stats and say that Tom Brady won Super Bowls by himself. Wins and losses being given to one player on a 53-man team with three phases of a game makes no sense at all. 

We're looking at straight individual performances, here. This is what we're going to do. Goff is in his eight season. He's played 105 games in his career. So what I'm going to do is put those 105 games up against both Brady and Manning's first 105 games. Let's see how things turn out.

Stat	Tom Brady	Peyton Manning	Jared Goff
Passing yards	25,003	27.634	27,119
Touchdowns	186	198	164
Interceptions	82	116	73
Completion %	63.0	63.2	64.5
Rating	92.8	90.8	93.3

There you go. Goff is on a better pace than both of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play this game. Less interceptions, more yards than Brady at least, more accurate and better ratting than both. 

I'm sure there's going to be someone in the comments that said I didn't choose their best years. By this time in their careers, they had both been Pro Bowlers and they had both been All-Pro. The most interesting thing about this is that I wound up in 2004 for Manning and 2007 for Brady. They both won their first league MVP's in those years. Jared Goff has entered the MVP conversation in the last couple weeks. 

This is not me saying that Goff wins it. This is me saying that this is a funny coincidence that could turn out to be a lot funnier in a couple months if Goff keeps his current play going.

Look, I know the football internet. They'll probably say "yeah, well Goff isn't good under pressure. Here's the completion percentage for each guy per Pro Football Focus. 

A quick note, PFF did not start tracking pressure stats until 2006. So what we'll do is track from 2006 to 2013 for Brady and Manning. Here's what we got. 

Brady	Manning	Goff
47.3	54.7	45.4

Brady and Manning come out ahead of Goff here. But look how close Goff is to Brady. Just two percentage points away. 

The Last thing we'll look at is home and away splits. One of the big things against Goff is always how he does on the road. Let's see the stats on the road for all three guys in their first 105 games.

But first. I noticed something. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning played 1 more away games than Goff has in their first 105 games. So I dialed it back to 51. That's the number road games that Jared Goff has played thus far. Here's what we got. 

Stat	Tom Brady	Peyton Manning	Jared Goff
Passing Yards	10,956	11,862	12,885
Touchdowns	77	71	72
Intterceptions	51	56	40
Completion %	62.3	60.5	62.7
Rating	88.4	83.9	88.4

Ok, two more things, I swear. After years of proving the idea that Matthew Stafford's stats came in garbage time when the Lions were down big, let me show you that this is not the case for Goff either. only 1,733 of Goff's 27,119 career yards have come when his team is down with four minutes left to go. 

The other is that I'm sure that someone will say "but the game has changed. It was more of a running game back then and now it's all about passing." I got you covered there. Here's the passing attempts for all three guys in their first 105 games:

Tom Brady	Peyton Manning	Jared Goff
3,456	3,679	3,661

I fully understand that this is going to break your brain and challenge everything you've thought you've ever known about football. Believe me, it broke my brain too. This is what happens when a quarterback is on a good team that wins championships. They get placed upon a pedestal so high that you can't ever imagine anyone ever coming close to it. When you separate the team achievements from the singular player, you see that the pedestal isn't that high at all.   

So, Sorry Jay. Turns out it is close. Like, really close. 

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