Breaking the Jets' 2024 schedule into tiers: 3 games that will determine if they can be champions
Now that the Jets schedule is released and teams have gathered for training camps, we can take a deep dive into how the fans should look at each game in terms of winnability. Not every game on the NFL schedule is created equal. So, let’s dive into the Jets schedule and tier the games in […]
Now that the Jets schedule is released and teams have gathered for training camps, we can take a deep dive into how the fans should look at each game in terms of winnability.
Not every game on the NFL schedule is created equal. So, let’s dive into the Jets schedule and tier the games in five categories: Must Win, Should Win, Who Knows, Could Win and This is Where Champions are Made.
Must-Win Games
These are games that shouldn’t be in doubt. While both of these games are on the road, they are against opponents who simply don’t have the talent to match up with the Jets.
Week 8: @ New England Patriots (Sunday, Oct 27, 1pm ET)
It is likely this could be the Jets first look at Drake Maye, who should not be able to move the ball against this defense especially with little in terms of weapons. Jets should stack the box and make Drake Maye and some young or subpar pass catchers beat the vaunted Jets secondary.
Week 10: @ Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, Nov 10, 4:25pm ET)
There will be a lot of hype in seeing Marvin Harrison Jr. take on Sauce Gardner, but in the end the Jets offense won’t make it anything more than a footnote in the game. The Cardinals, despite having a defensive minded head coach, simply won’t have the horses to stop the Jets offense and this one won’t be close.
Should-Win Games
These games are most likely wins for gang green. It is possible for one reason or another that the Jets could trip up and lose one of these, but not more than one unless there is a bigger issue.
Week 2: @ Tennessee Titans (Sunday, Sep 15, 1pm ET)
The Jets will be on a short week after opening the season on Monday Night Football on the West Coast. They stay on the road for the second week in a row to take on the Titans who are looking at life without Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel. I expect the Titans to be better than most think, but it will take some time for QB Will Levis to get going with his new weapons and the Jets defense will simply be too much for the second-year man.
Week 4: Denver Broncos (Sunday, Sep 29, 1pm ET)
The Broncos defense is still good, and the Jets might struggle to move the ball, but there is no way Bo Nix, Zach Wilson or Jarred Stidham are able to move the ball with any regularity against the Jets defense. The Jets finally get the Broncos at home which should make Alijah Vera-Tucker very happy as he got hurt the last two years in Denver
Week 11: Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, Nov 17, 8:20pm ET)
The Colts are in a weird spot with Anthony Richardson who may have all the talent in the world, but he simply takes too many hits, so it may be impossible to truly understand how good he is. The Colts signed former Jets’ legend Joe Flacco as a backup, but I think the Flacco we saw last year was a fluke with the Cleveland Browns. The Indianapolis defense is good but this is a game the Jets should take at home in Prime Time.
Week 13: Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, Dec 1, 1pm ET)
With new Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald taking over for Pete Carroll the defense will get a huge boost, but it will take some time for Macdonald to change an organizational philosophy that was run the same way for so long. This one could be a trap game as the Jets will travel to Miami the following week.
"Who Knows?" Games
Because of scheduling circumstances, it is impossible to tell about these games.
Week 3: New England Patriots (Thursday, Sep 19, 8:15pm ET)
This isn’t the old Patriots, and they don’t have the same energy. It will not be easy to replace Bill Belichick whose master game planning covered up for a lack of talent on the team. Still, I always say Thursday Night Game are “weird unders”. I imagine it will still be the Jacoby Brissett show, who always seems to play well against the Jets. The fact that the Jets are better on paper can be negated by the fact that they will be playing their third game in 10 days to open the season.
Week 5: @ Minnesota Vikings (Sunday Oct 6, 9:30am ET)
Too many people are going to sleep on former Jets’ QBs Sam Darnold and Kevin O’Connell and they are going to be proven wrong. Kevin O’Connell is one of the best play callers in the league and understands the limitations of his players and schemes accordingly. I think this will be a Sam Darnold game with the Vikings using the BYE week (Week 6 for Minnesota) to make the switch to first round pick J.J. McCarthy. The fact that this game is played in England adds a factor that make it impossible to predict.
Week 9: Houston Texans (Thursday, Oct 31, 8:15pm ET)
After molly-whooping the Texans last year, the Jets may go into this game overly confident which is a mistake against a very talented Texans team who now add Stefon Diggs. It is still early enough in the season that Diggs might not have demanded a trade yet. The game being a second Thursday Night game for New York makes this especially scary on Halloween.
Week 18: Miami Dolphins (Date/Time TBD)
The Jets may have anything they can locked up or they may be fighting for their playoff lives or possibly even the division. Until we know what each team is playing for, we can’t predict how the last week of the season could play out.
Could-win Games
These are games that are more 50/50. Of the 4 listed below, the Jets need to win half of them in order to be a true force in the AFC.
Week 6: Buffalo Bills (Monday, Oct 14, 8:15pm ET)
The first five weeks of the season are absolutely brutal for the Jets logistically, considering a West Coast trip, a Thursday Night game and trip to England, and their reward for all that is to face one of the best teams in their conference, let alone their division. Everyone will point to the talent the Bills lost on offense and not realize that the shift in personnel will mean a shift in offensive philosophy that will be a tougher matchup for the Jets. Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed can shut down Khalil Shakir and Marquez Valdes-Scantling all they want. The Bills are going to run the ball (with James Cook and Josh Allen) and utilize their mismatches at tight end.
Week 7: @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, Oct 20, 8:20pm ET)
The Steelers are counted out every year, and every year Mike Tomlin has them above .500 and winning some games they shouldn’t. New York doesn’t have much success when they have to travel to Pittsburgh and the Steelers are used to winning ugly games. The Jets better hope Russell Wilson can’t turn back the clock in the steel city or Justin Fields wasn’t the problem in Chicago.
Week 15: @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, Dec 15, 1pm ET)
The Jaguars should be a really good team, but for some reason, they don’t always show up. If you told me the Jaguars would win 11 games I would believe you. If you told me they only won seven, I would still believe you. Trevor Lawrence is as enigmatic as they come. I can see this game going either way.
Week 16: Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, Dec 22, 1pm ET)
The Jets match up well with the Rams on outside, but Stafford and McVey are two of the most formidable opponents in the NFL and they can’t be counted out. The Rams were supposed to have some long rebuild and Stafford and McVey had them back in the playoffs last year. Don’t be surprised if this team is right there in the thick of it in the NFC when they visit MetLife.
"This is where champions are made" Games
These are the circled games on the calendar. If the Jets want to be Super Bowl champs, these are the games they will use as a benchmark. Winning at least one is a must, but more than the result, the way the games are played will be more important.
Week 1: @San Francisco 49ers (Monday, Sep 9, 8:15pm ET)
Really NFL? Not only do you put the Jets back on MNF to start the season but against the same guy that tore Rodgers’ Achilles last year? Not the best way to kick off the new season with such a tough opening matchup. Still with such familiarity between the two organizations (Saleh was defensive coordinator for Kyle Shanahan before taking Jets job) it will come down to who is better prepared to start the year.
Week 14: @ Miami Dolphins (Sunday, Dec 8, 1pm ET)
Not seeing Miami until week 14 is a little bit of a head scratcher in the Jets schedule, but luckily, they get the Dolphins in Florida late in the year. Miami is a different team in South Beach and the Jets will have their work cut out for them trying to slow down an offense that is filled with speed and talent.
Week 17: @ Buffalo Bills (Sunday, Dec 29, 1pm ET)
Ah, Buffalo in late December. I can’t predict snow, but I can predict cold. The Jets have a QB that spent a majority of his career in Green Bay and will have no problem navigating the Buffalo cold. If both of these teams are as good as we think they should be, this might be one of the most important games of the year when it comes to seeding.
Assuming the Jets lose one “should win”, one “who knows”, two “could wins” and two “championship” games, that puts their record at 11-6. That should be good enough for at worst the first wild card spot, but likely a shot at the AFC East.
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