ESPN's 2025 draft pick prediction for the Bears shows what kind of season to expect for Chicago in 2024
As we all know by now, the Chicago Bears are slated to have some lofty expectations during the 2024 season after once again revamping the talent on the roster.Entering the upcoming season, there's no question this is the most talented roster the Bears have put together in quite some time and definitely the best during […]
As we all know by now, the Chicago Bears are slated to have some lofty expectations during the 2024 season after once again revamping the talent on the roster.
Entering the upcoming season, there's no question this is the most talented roster the Bears have put together in quite some time and definitely the best during the Matt Eberflus era in Chicago.
As a result, the Bears are beginning to be placed in the national spot light and receiving tons of attention during the start of the offseason program, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down.
Expectations continued to rise in Chicago after ESPN released their NFL power index that included projections for all 32 teams during the 2024 season based on their FPI model. Here's how ESPN's model came up with those predictions:
"The FPI projects the draft order by simulating the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations." via ESPN
Here's what the projection models had to say about the Bears' 2024 season.
For starters, the projection model had the Bears winding up with the 17th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Bears haven't landed outside of the Top-15 in the draft since the 2020 NFL Draft after the Bears finished with an 8-8 record.
According to the model, the Bears have a 27.4 percent chance to end up with a Top-10 selection in the draft next year. Having the 17th overall pick would mean that the Bears would narrowly miss the playoffs according to ESPN's model.
As for how things look in the NFC North division, ESPN's model has the Detroit Lions winning the North yet again while having the second seed in the conference, the Green Bay Packers are listed in second in the division as a wild card team in the playoffs, and the Minnesota Vikings are projected to have the seventh overall pick and finish last in the NFC North.
Overall, that seems fair at this point of the year. The Bears should still be viewed as a fringe playoff team and would need to really prove themselves on the field before ranking them ahead of the Packers or Lions. However, if everything goes right in Chicago in 2024, this team could easily surprise a lot of people and reach the postseason. After all, this is just a projection and games are played on the field, not in a simulation.
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