What the Packers expect from Rashan Gary under the new defensive system
The perception and any analysis around Rashan Gary has always been difficult to understand and digest. He came out of Michigan as a toolsy, absurdly talented edge rusher, but fell to the 12th pick because of his rawness and because the production was not there at the collegiate level. In the NFL, Gary entered in […]
The perception and any analysis around Rashan Gary has always been difficult to understand and digest. He came out of Michigan as a toolsy, absurdly talented edge rusher, but fell to the 12th pick because of his rawness and because the production was not there at the collegiate level.
In the NFL, Gary entered in a strange spot. The Green Bay Packers had just signed Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith in free agency, so even being a first-round pick, he wouldn't immediately start.
In fact, Gary didn't become a preferred starter for the Packers until his fourth NFL season, when Za'Darius got cut. And while the flashes are there and the efficiency in terms of pressures is really good, the total numbers don't justify the hype.
When I received this question for the Packers mailbag last week, it was time to go further and understand if Jeff Hafley's system can make him play better — and put up better numbers.
In terms of sacks, Rashan Gary hasn't had a double-digit season in the NFL yet. Last year, it looked like he would, reaching nine by week 12. However, he didn't have another sack for the rest of the season — the final five regular season games, plus the Packers' two playoff games —, finishing the year with nine.
Over his first five years in the NFL, Rashan Gary has had 31.5 sacks. That's significantly fewer than some of the best edges of his draft class — Nick Bosa (53.5), Brian Burns (46.0), Josh Allen (45), and Montez Sweat (41.5). They also played more snaps, for sure, but that's part of the consideration when analyzing the Packers' plan.
However, there's room for optimism — and that's why the Packers gave him a four-year, $96 million extension last season.
Scheme
Stylistically, the Packers' defense is expected to mimic most of the things the San Francisco 49ers do. And it's impossible to watch the 49ers' defense without seeing how impactful Nick Bosa is.
Bosa is certainly more talented than Gary — and arguably more talented than basically every other defensive front player in the league at this point. In 2020, when Bosa got hurt, the 49ers' defense generated 3 expected points added (EPA) per 100 plays after generating 22 in 2019, when Bosa was a rookie. In 2022, he was the defensive player of the year.
And the style of defense the Packers want to create incentivizes the front players to force negative plays for the opposing offense — it's a different mentality than the previous regime under Joe Barry, who prioritized limiting explosive plays.
"It's about TFLs and sacks," Packers' defensive line coach Jason Rebrovich said. "We're going to look to create havoc in the backfield. Every down, we're looking to penetrate and make something big happen. Offensive linemen, not moving so fast laterally, they're going to have to stay on the line of scrimmage a little bit longer with the movements and the ability for us to get in the backfield."
Individual relevance
For the Packers, Rashan Gary is still the motor of the defense. Last season, he was the highest-graded defensive player on the roster, and now Jason Rebrovich praised what he can be.
"He's the engine. He drives it," Rebrovich said. "It's what he does. So from a mentality standpoint, I don't see any difference (from last year). Now the good thing is, he's had a full year of his injury that he's come back from and we're taking it day by day just like anything else, and hopefully, we're wishing for the best for him this upcoming season."
Now, if Gary is fully healthy and used as a full-time player, the task will be to keep his efficiency and extrapolate that to a higher volume.
In terms of pass rush snaps to get a pressure among the talented 2019 draft class, Gary is only behind Bosa, and the difference is small.
- Nick Bosa 6.18
- Rashan Gary 6.41
- Josh Allen 7.41
- Brian Burns 8.46
- Montez Sweat 8.67
After five seasons in the NFL, there's a bittersweet feeling around what Rashan Gary has been. Now, though, he has an opportunity to shine, and the 2024 season will be a big answer about what he can really become.
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