The 2024 NFL Draft is just a few short weeks away now. The first few waves of free agency signings are behind us. Draft strategies are starting to become clear for every single NFL team by the day. So, what should the Denver Broncos do with their first round pick this year?

There is certainly not one "right" answer right now, but we can learn a lot about the most likely outcomes just by combining all available mock draft data out there. As I always do in spring, I gather data from every mock draft in existence to help predict the future for the NFL Draft. Here's what the last 150+ NFL mock drafts over the last month are saying the Broncos could or should do in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

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Denver Broncos First Round Targets

• Bo Nix, QB Oregon
• J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan
• Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo
• Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama
• Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington
• Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama
• Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State
• Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA

Quarterback Options for Broncos First Pick

For some reason Bo Nix has been the hottest mock draft target to the Denver Broncos for multiple weeks now. In fact Nix has been mocked to the Broncos over 30 times in the last 10 days. That's more than triple any other prospect in that same span. Why is that, and what happened to create such confidence in one player as the Broncos' fit?

Around mid-march Mel Kiper (among a few other big names) slated Bo Nix as the likely pick to Denver at 12, which sparked dozens of copy cat mock drafts shortly thereafter. But it's more complicated than that. Once J.J. McCarthy's (QB, Michigan) hype train went off the rails a few weeks ago a chain reaction began to take place. Both Bo Nix and Michael Penix began to generate buzz as potential first round picks to the Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, and even the Seahawks.

With Caleb Williams (USC), Jayden Daniels (LSU), Drake Maye (North Carolina), and now J.J. McCarthy all seemingly "locked" in as top ten draft picks that may leave the Broncos to choose between Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr., unless they trade up. And the problem with a trade up? The Broncos currently don't have a second round pick, so their ammunition to make a move like that is less likely from the start.

Nix would be a closer fit to what Sean Payton wants from his quarterbacks given his quick post-snap reads. Last season, Russell Wilson averaged more than three seconds to throw (4th slowest among QBs with 200+ pass attempts). Bo Nix was more than a half second faster getting the ball out last year at Oregon. That would be ideal to fit the Broncos' scheme and offset any offensive line issues.

Penix could be an option, but the Raiders, Seahawks, and even Vikings have generated more pro day and private workout interest with him. It seems mock draft writers have caught onto that as well as Penix has only been mocked to Broncos a handful of times in recent weeks.

McCarthy could also be an option, but as experts are realizing that he could be gone well inside the top ten he's becoming a much less frequent selection to the Broncos. If the Broncos go quarterback (without a trade down), Nix seems like the pick.

Defensive Options for Broncos First Pick

The Broncos already have one elite cornerback in Patrick Surtain, but could certainly use another opposite him. Both Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell have been mocked to the Broncos almost 10% of the time apiece in recent weeks, so there are clearly several draft experts who believe that's a significant area of need.

Terrion Arnold offers the most balanced skill set in the NFL Draft at the cornerback position. He picked off opposing quarterbacks five times last fall and racked up elite running stopping numbers as well. Quinyon Mitchell posted a 97th percentile Speed Score at the NFL Combine, answered any questions about press coverage ability at the Senior Bowl, and is quickly solidifying himself as the best cover corner in the class.

If the Broncos drafted Terrion Arnold or Quinyon MItchell they would immediately have one of the best corner tandems in the league.

The edge position seems less likely, for multiple reasons. Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Laiatu Latu all together did account for about 15% of mock selections here recently, but that likely doesn't add up. For starters, Dallas Turner will be long gone as he profiles like one of the best edge rushers in several years. Both Verse and Latu would be considered slight "reaches" at pick 12, so unless a trade down happens they're both unlikely. But also, edge just isn't quite an "urgent need" for the team either.

The Broncos don't have an elite edge rusher, but they have three solid options returning. Jonathon Cooper, Nik Bonitto, and Baron Browning all tallied pressure rates over 13% (well above league average) and snagged at least five sacks. That's a solid rotation at edge.

If the Broncos do go defense, expect a cornerback selection.

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