Enter social media talk, and you will certainly see people talking that NFL teams should be aware of the risks of getting Caleb Williams. After all, he's a USC quarterback, and the history indicates a tough track record: Mark Sanchez and Sam Darnold are two obvious recent examples.

But don't overthink it, and don't helmet scout. It's a completely different circumstance.

Perception

The narrative around USC quarterbacks exists because several of them were good in college, but underperformed in the NFL. According to an ESPN metric that goes back to 1998, USC is the second best university in the United States at producing quarterbacks, behind Oklahoma. Here's how it works:

"ESPN Stats & Information combed through data on every team dating back to 1998, looking at key markers of greatness at each position. We awarded points for college production (by way of all-conference and All-America honors), NFL draft selections and NFL production (though only through the players' first five years — Michigan can claim responsibility for Tom Brady's success for only so long)."

And even though USC has a long history of producing good prospects, some of them underperformed in the NFL — that happened with players like Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold, Matt Leinart, and Cody Kessler. Some of them, especially Sanchez and Darnold, were highly touted prospects with tools to succeed at the pro level, but failed.

Helmet scouting

Even though there are some instances of failed prospects, that has nothing to do with what went through at USC — and especially what's going on with Caleb Williams.

Carson Palmer, for example, did become a great NFL quarterback — even though injuries limited his career's ceiling. Meanwhile, Matt Cassel was a backup at USC and became an NFL starter — you can absolutely say that his NFL career was better than his college stint, even though he wasn't more than an average player.

Matt Leinaert, Matt Barkley, and Cody Kessler were all expected to be limited at the NFL level because of their physical characteristics, and USC made them work in the college game.

Surroundings

More important than the school itself is what's around the player. For example, there was a fair criticism regarding Jeff Tedford, because of the throwing mechanics he forced his quarterbacks to adapt. Most failed in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers had to change it completely before taking over for the Green Bay Packers in his fourth season in the league.

But at USC, and with Caleb Williams in particular, the situation is completely different than it was for Sanchez and Darnold.

Pete Carroll was the coach when Sanchez played there, with Steve Sarkisian as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. With Sam Darnold, the coach and offensive leader was Clay Helton.

Caleb Williams worked under Lincoln Riley, and the coach was the main reason why the quarterback transferred from Oklahoma to USC before his junior season.

Whether you like Riley or not, he coached two first overall picks in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. Williams will most likely be the third one.

Why they failed

If there's an organizational failure to explain what happened to Sanchez and Darnold, it's probably more related to the New York Jets — even though they also had different coaches. Both, especially Darnold, ended up in bad circumstances.

The Chicago Bears didn't have a good track record developing quarterbacks either — even some top prospects failed there, like Jay Cutler, Mitch Trubisky, and Justin Fields. This time around, they tried to create a better situation, with a strong supporting cast of players and Shane Waldron as the offensive coordinator.

On the other hand, general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus might quickly be on the hot seat if things don't go right immediately, which is a valid concern.

Caleb Williams might work out or not in the NFL. But don't helmet scout, because USC won't have anything to do with that.

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